Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.08%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.