UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 11, 2022 at 8pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
7 - 0
Dundee Utd

(AZ Alkmaar win 7-1 on aggregate)

Pavlidis (21', 36'), Reijnders (31', 41'), Evjen (44'), de Wit (46'), Lahdo (74')
Clasie (64')

FT(HT: 5-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Dundee United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

Last Six:

Last Game: AZ 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles
Sunday, August 7 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
2	PSV Eindhoven	1	3	3
3	AZ Alkmaar	1	2	3
4	SBV Excelsior	1	2	3

Dundee United

Last Six:

Last Game: Dundee Utd 0-1 Livingston
Sunday, August 7 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
8	St Johnstone	2	0	3
9	Dundee United	2	-1	1
10	Kilmarnock	2	-2	1

We said: AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Dundee United (AZ Alkmaar to win 3-1 on aggregate)

Holding a slender lead, it will be difficult for Dundee United not to adopt a defensive strategy in order to get over the line. However, that is something which will likely not work in their favour, and we expect to see AZ run out comfortable victors on the night and in the tie. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Dundee United had a probability of 16.62%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.83%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Dundee United win it was 0-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Dundee United
57.3% ( -0.17)	26.09% ( 0.07)	16.62% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 38.04% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.05% (

-0.09)

62.95% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.57% (

-0.06)

82.43% (

0.06)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.74% (

-0.11)

22.26% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.3% (

-0.16)

55.7% (

0.16)

Dundee United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.93% (

0.08)

51.07% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.61% (

0.05)

85.39% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 57.29%

Dundee United 16.62%

Draw 26.07%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Dundee United
1-0 @ 17.07% 2-0 @ 12.83% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.45% ( -0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 57.29%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.36% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 2.9% ( 0) Other @ 0.35% Total : 26.07%	0-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.56% Total : 16.62%