Both teams have scored in all eight of Galatasaray's Europa League fixtures this season, with their games seeing more goals than any other teams in the League Phase (35), while both sides have scored in four of AZ Alkmaar's last five matches in the competition.
Goals at both ends are therefore expected, but as these two teams are keen to not lose and remain in the tie ahead of next week's second leg, we can see the spoils being shared once again at the AFAS Stadion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
-0.85) 
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