Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlton Town win with a probability of 70.96%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for AFC Mansfield had a probability of 13.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlton Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.09%) and 1-3 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.65%), while for an AFC Mansfield win it was 2-1 (3.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlton Town would win this match.