Caykur Rizespor have the opportunity to climb out of the relegation zone on Saturday, when they travel to the Vefa Stadium where they will face 13th-placed Fatih Karagumruk.
Currently sitting nine points above 17th spot, the hosts can remain confident of retaining their top-flight status, but they cannot afford any slip-ups by dropping points against teams below them, like Rizespor this weekend.
Match preview
Fatih Karagumruk have only won once in their last seven league outings, and a 3-1 defeat against Gaziantep FK last time out will not have helped their confidence heading into this match.
Emre Mor's 51st-minute strike reduced the deficit by half in that game, but Gaziantep settled the game when Joao Figueiredo scored their third 20 minutes later, despite Karagumruk dominating possession throughout the 90 minutes.
Conceding a trio of goals last Saturday means that Volkan Demirel's side have conceded at least three goals in their last three defeats, suggesting that they will need to try even more so to limit Rizespor's chances in front of goal this weekend.
Being on home soil should help Karagumruk on Saturday, mainly because Rizespor's away form has been extremely poor this season, having lost eight out of nine matches and failed to win on the road this campaign.
Hamza Hamzaoglu's side's form has picked up in recent weeks which has helped them climb to within touching distance of 16th spot, and they will view their 2-2 draw against Besiktas last time out as a positive result.
Joel Pohjanpalo equalised twice for Caykur Rizespor in that draw, which prevented the home team from recording back-to-back defeats in the Super Lig for the first time since October.
One defeat in their last five matches is something that Hamzaoglu's side will need to build upon, but perhaps the visitors should aim for a point this weekend given their poor track record on their travels this season.
Rizespor just hold the worst defensive record in the division, conceding 36 times in 20 matches, and 24 of those goals have been conceded away from home, something that Rizespor have to improve on if they are going to escape relegation in May.
These two teams played out a goalless draw in their last meeting, which came at the beginning of this season, when neither team managed to create many chances on goal.
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Team News
Nigeria international Ahmed Musa is unavailable to Fatih Karagumruk this weekend, currently away on international duty in the Africa Cup of Nations.
Kerim Frei is sidelined due to injury, along with Vegar Eggen Hedenstad, who was forced off after just 31 minutes on December 26 and has not featured for Demirel's side since.
Burak Bekaroglu and Caner Erkin were both shown a straight red card against Fenerbahce last month, but the pair returned to action last time out against Gaziantep and are expected to retain their places in the starting 11.
Loic Remy tested positive for coronavirus last week and will continue to be unavailable to Rizespor, while Yannick Bolasie is a doubt for Saturday's match due to personal reasons.
Midfielder Alper Potuk made his return to the side last time out after being shown his marching orders against Sivasspor, but the visitors will be without right-back Gokhan Gonul through suspension this time around after he was shown a double yellow card against Besiktas.
Striker Pohjanpalo is in his best form since arriving at Rizespor on loan from Bayer Leverkusen, having netted five times in his last five Super Lig outings, and the 27-year-old will be looking to carry on that good form on Saturday.
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Zukanovic, Bekaroglu, Luckassen; Oztumer, Biglia, Ugur; Borini, Salibur, Torun
Caykur Rizespor possible starting lineup:
Akkan; Sertel, Holmen, Ay, Koc; Baiano, Djokovic; Umar, Boyd, Boldrin; Pohjanpalo
We say: Fatih Karagumruk 1-1 Caykur Rizespor
Rizespor will be looking to extend their better form by avoiding defeat on the road this weekend, and the visitors will be looking to take advantage of Karagumruk potentially losing some confidence after defeat last time out.
Karagumruk will need to respect their opponents and not enter this game with a complacent mindset, given Rizespor's away record, but Rizespor should fancy themselves for a point this weekend.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fatih Karagumruk win with a probability of 64.26%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Caykur Rizespor had a probability of 15.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Caykur Rizespor win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fatih Karagumruk would win this match.
