Fluminense host Santa Fe on Thursday in gameweek four of the Copa Libertadores, with the home side currently leading Group D and their opponents yet to register a victory in this season's tournament.
The last game between the two sides in gameweek two ended in a 2-1 win for Fluminense, who have only recorded one victory along with two draws in Group D.
Match preview
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Fluminense have played out two 1-1 draws in this competition so far along with their victory against Thursday's opponents in gameweek two, and last time out in the Copa Libertadores Roger Machado's side drew with Atletico Junior.
Miguel Borja opened the scoring from the penalty spot in that game but Manchester City-bound 17-year-old Kayky equalised for Fluminense just nine minutes later, which was the youngster's first goal in the Copa Libertadores.
The Brazilian side faced Portuguesa RJ in the Carioca Taca Guanabara on Sunday when they won 3-1 on the day and 4-2 on aggregate in the semi-final to set up a tie with Flamengo which will be played after this Copa Libertadores fixture.
In that game the sides went into half time at 1-1 but second-half goals from Gabriel Teixeira and Kayky ensured Fluminense won the tie after a 1-1 draw in the first leg.
Santa Fe have not won a game in their last five matches, during which the team only managed to score three goals, and their last two results have been goalless draws.
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Atletico Junior knocked Harold Rivera's side out of the league playoffs in early May as a 0-0 draw was not enough for Santa Fe to overturn a 3-1 deficit from the first-leg tie.
More recently, Santa Fe failed to find the back of the net against River Plate in gameweek three of the Copa Libertadores and are now the lowest scorers in Group D having only scored twice.
However, a clean sheet for Leandro Castellanos will please the goalkeeper and Rivera as they aim to stop Fluminense from adding to their four goals in this campaign's Copa Libertadores.
Another defeat for Santa Fe on Thursday will mean they almost certainly can not catch Fluminense at the top and depending on the result between River Plate and Atletico Junior in this gameweek, Santa Fe could end up three points behind third place with two games to play.
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Team News
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Fluminense midfielder Hudson will be absent from the home side's squad after suffering a cruciate ligament injury earlier this month, and he will be sidelined on a long-term basis.
Veteran striker Fred started this season's tournament in fine form after netting three goals in the opening two fixtures and with Kayky coming into good form now as well, the Fluminense attack is strong.
Santa Fe will be looking to build upon the two clean sheets in their last two games however in that time the team did not manage to score a goal, despite winger Jhon Arias creating many chances in those games.
Rivera usually opts for a 4-1-4-1 formation and he is likely to name the same side to the one that drew with River Plate last time out, with experienced midfielder Leonardo Pico in the middle of the field.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Danilo, Claro, Nino, Calegari; Yago, Martinelli; Henrique, Nene, Kayky; Fred
Santa Fe possible starting lineup:
Castellanos; Delgado, Palacios, Cano, Arboleda; Pico; Arias, Serje, Giraldo, Osorio; Ramos
We say: Fluminense 2-0 Santa Fe
Fluminense are on a 10-game unbeaten run and we expect that to continue on Thursday with another victory over Santa Fe, who have struggled in front of goal in the Copa Libertadores this season.
Kayky is in good form for the home side and Machado's side will be wanting to stay at the summit of Group D heading into the final two games of the group stages.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 53.46%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Santa Fe had a probability of 18.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.17%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.29%), while for a Santa Fe win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
