Man United are not expected to be at full strength on Sunday, but there will still be plenty of familiar faces, and the Red Devils have such a strong squad that it should be a very competitive fixture. Athletic have goals in them but can also be suspect defensively, so we are predicting a high-scoring draw here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 45.93%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Manchester United	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
45.93% ( -0.91)	24.85% ( 0.26)	29.22% ( 0.65)

Both teams to score 55.68% (

-0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.76% (

-0.77)

47.23% (

0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.54% (

-0.72)

69.46% (

0.72)

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.37% (

-0.71)

20.62% (

0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.82% (

-1.12)

53.18% (

1.12)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.15% (

0.07)

29.84% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.07% (

0.09)

65.93% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Manchester United 45.93%

Athletic Bilbao 29.22%

Draw 24.84%

Manchester United	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.71% Total : 45.93%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.84%	0-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.24% Total : 29.22%