Seeking to end their two-game losing streak, Libya take a trip to the Stade de Franceville to square off against Gabon in Group F of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers on Thursday.
The visitors picked up their first win of the campaign last time out and will be looking to build on that performance and keep their chances of making it to the final qualifying round alive.
Match preview
© Reuters
After sealing their place in the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations, Gabon were denied a dream start to their hunt for a first-ever World Cup appearance when they fell to a 2-1 defeat against Libya in September's reverse fixture.
Gabon appeared to get their campaign back on track as they held high-flying Egypt to a 1-1 draw four days later, when Jim Allevinah and Mostafa Mohamed scored for either side in the second half to force a share of the spoils.
However, they were sent crashing back to earth away to Angola in their subsequent outing as Zini, Ary Papel and Jonathan Buatu-Mananga all found the target to hand the hosts a comfortable 3-1 victory.
Gabon head into Friday's game fresh off the back of picking up their first win of the qualifiers when they saw off Angola 2-0 courtesy of a 74th-minute strike from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and To Carneiro's 84th-minute own goal.
With four points from their opening four outings, the Brazilians are currently third in Group F, six points adrift of Egypt in the qualification spot and one ahead of rock-bottom Angola.
While Patrice Neveu's side have been solid in attack, this poor run of results has been owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where they have shipped the most goals of all four teams in the group with six.
Meanwhile, Libya kicked off their World Cup qualification campaign on a blistering note, claiming successive victories over Gabon and Angola back in September.
However, they failed to make it three wins on the trot for the first time since January 2014 as they were beaten 1-0 by Egypt in the first of their double-header back in October.
This was followed by a humbling 3-0 loss against the Pharaohs last time out, when Ahmed Fatouh, Mohamed and Ramadan Sobhi found the target at Benghazi's 28 March Stadium.
Javier Clemente's men, who are currently second in the standings, head into the game on a run of two wins from their last 12 games across all competitions and this has been in no small part down to their struggles at both ends of the pitch as they have netted seven goals and shipped 18 in that time.
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Team News
Gabon have called up a fine crop of players for their final group games against Libya and Egypt, including Nice midfielder Mario Lemina and Saint-Etienne forward Denis Bouanga.
With 29 goals in 71 appearances, Aubameyang leads the nation's all-time scoring chart and the Arsenal forward will be one to look out for in this one.
Meanwhile, Libya head into the game with an experienced squad, including Al-Ahli Tripoli goalkeeper Muhammad Nashnoush, who holds hi nation's appearance record with 74.
With 10 goals in 60 appearances, Faisal Al Badri is currently fifth in Libya's all-time scoring chart and the Al Hilal Benghazi midfielder will be one to look out for in this one.
Gabon possible starting lineup:
Mezui; Oyono, Akuwa, Palun, Obiang; Kanga, Lemina, Poko, Bouanga; Boupendza, Aubameyang
Libya possible starting lineup:
Nashnoush; Al Ouarfali, Amir, El Trbi, Salama; Al Badri, Musrati, Ali; Elhouni, Zubya, Eisay
We say: Gabon 0-1 Libya
With their chances of qualification on the line, this game has all the makings of a proper contest as both sides will be looking to avoid another defeat. Looking at past results between the sides, Libya head into the game as the superior side in the history of this fixture and we are backing them to steal a narrow win in this one.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for Libya had a probability of 36.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.45%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-2 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gabon would win this match.
