Getafe will be looking to move further clear of the La Liga relegation zone when they welcome 19th-placed Alaves to Coliseum Alfonso Perez on Saturday afternoon.
The home side are currently 15th in the table, six points clear of the bottom three, while Alaves occupy 19th, four points from the safety of 17th heading into the next set of fixtures.
Match preview
© Reuters
Getafe have only lost one of their last five in the league, recording two wins in the process, which has moved them up into 15th spot in the table, six points ahead of 18th-placed Cadiz on the same number of games (25).
Quique Sanchez Flores's side played out a 1-1 draw with Cadiz last time out, with Borja Mayoral's first-half penalty proving enough to secure a share of the spoils at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Getafe are far from out of the relegation battle, but a win on Saturday would put them in a strong position, and they have been solid on home soil this term, picking up 20 points from 12 matches, winning six times in the process, while Alaves' away form, which is the worst in the league, should hand the capital outfit confidence.
The Deep Blue Ones have impressed since returning to Spain's top flight at the end of the 2016-17 campaign, finishing eighth, fifth and eighth in three of their last four La Liga seasons, but they were 15th last term, and it would not be a surprise to see them finish in a similar position this term.
Incredibly, each of the last five La Liga meetings between Getafe and Alaves have finished goalless, while the former are unbeaten in this fixture since April 2018, when they suffered a 2-0 loss at Mendizorrotza.
© Reuters
Alaves are very much in a relegation battle this season, picking up just 20 points from their 25 matches, which has left them in 19th spot in the table, four points behind 17th-placed Granada.
El Glorioso recorded an impressive 2-1 win over Valencia on February 13, but they lost 3-0 at Real Madrid last time out, which proved to be their fourth defeat in their last five games at this level.
Alaves have a tough start to March, taking on Sevilla and Real Sociedad in back-to-back matches, so there is no downplaying the importance of this contest, but as mentioned, the Basque side have the worst away record in Spain's top flight this term, picking up just five points from 12 matches.
Jose Luis Mendilibar's side have won just one of their 12 away league games this term, and these are the type of matches that will determine whether they will avoid relegation to the second tier.
Alaves are now in their sixth straight season at this level, finishing ninth, 14th, 11th, 16th and 16th since returning, and they will be desperate to make it 18 La Liga campaigns next term.
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Getafe will again be without the services of Sabit Abdulai through injury, while Mathias Olivera and Carles Alena are fitness doubts for the home side ahead of the contest.
Mayoral is likely to keep his spot in the side, having been on the scoresheet against Cadiz last time out, so Sandro Ramirez might have to accept a position on the bench once again.
There could be a return for Nemanja Maksimovic in midfield, though, and the hosts will also be hoping that Alena overcomes his injury problem in time to take to the field.
As for Alaves, Ximo Navarro is available once again following injury, while Victor Laguardia has returned from suspension, so the visitors will enter this match in excellent shape.
Laguardia is likely to return in the middle of the defence, but the team is expected to be similar to the one that took to the field for the first whistle against Real Madrid last time out.
Joselu is again set to lead the line for the Basque outfit, while Jason and Luis Rioja should continue in the wide areas, with Pere Pons and Manu Vallejo starting on the bench.
Getafe possible starting lineup:
Soria; Mitrovic, Dakonam, Cuenca; Suarez, Maksimovic, Arambarri, Alena, Olivera; Unal, Mayoral
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Tenaglia, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Escalante, Loum, Pina; Jason, Joselu, Rioja
We say: Getafe 1-1 Alaves
This match has a draw written all over it, which is a result that would suit Getafe more than Alaves. There has not actually been a winner in this particular fixture since January 2019, with the last five matches finishing level, and we are predicting a tight contest to finish 1-1.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 16.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
