In their first outing of 2022, Gaziantep prepare for the visit of Fatih Karagumruk aiming to make it four straight victories across all competitions.
The sides are separated by one point in the Turkish Super Lig table midway through the campaign and this weekend's game has all the makings of a keenly-contested affair.
Match preview
Gaziantep secured safe passage into the last 16 of the Turkish Cup courtesy of a penalty shootout win against lower league opposition Bursasor on Thursday.
Erol Bulut's men took the lead in the 58th minute through Mirza Cihan after which Burak Altiparmak levelled the contest, forcing the tie to go all the way to penalties where Batuhan Kor suffered the agony of missing the decisive spot kick.
The Falcons have picked up 10 of the last 12 league points possible and are currently ninth in the standings, four points shy of Fenerbahce in the race for the last European spot.
Awaiting them next is a fourth ever meeting against an opposing side who they have not beaten in any of the three previous clashes, losing both of last season's encounters by a combined score of 5-2.
One of only three teams unbeaten on home turf so far, Saturday's hosts will back themselves to come out on top this weekend and end their barren run in this fixture.
Fatih Karagumruk have also progressed into the next stage of the Turkiye Kupasi following a 4-0 victory over Bodrumspor on December 29.
First-half goals from Derrick Luckassen, Fabio Borini, Lucas Biglia and Vato Arveladze propelled Volkan Demirel's men to an emphatic triumph at the Ataturk Olimpiyat.
Prior to that, the Kara Kirmizi played out back to back league stalemates and have now dropped to 11th place, albeit outside the top half only on goal difference.
Only three teams in the entire division have amassed more points on the road than Saturday's visitors, who set out to record a fifth away win this term.
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Team News
Recep Niyaz and Angelo Sagal have been ruled out of Gaziantep's last four games through muscle injuries, and they are not expected to play any part this weekend.
The hosts will also be without the services of Torgeir Borven and Jefferson who have only managed a combined 13 appearances this term due to long-term knee injuries.
Karagumruk midfielder Kerim Frei continues to nurse a leg injury which has seen him not feature since coming on as a second-half substitute versus Kayserispor in October.
Forward Aleksandar Pesic heads into Sunday's game having scored in each of his last four outings, and the 29-year-old is one to keep an eye on.
Gaziantep possible starting lineup:
Guvenc; Tosca, Caulker, Djilobodji, Pehlivan, Kitsiou; Maxim, Erdogan, Soyalp; Demir, Brandao
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Balkovec, Zukanovic, Luckassen, Hedenstad; Ugur, Biglia, Bertolacci; Torun, Pesic, Durmaz
We say: Gaziantep 2-1 Fatih Karagumruk
This is one of those fixtures that could easily go either way as there is little to choose between the sides. That said, we are backing Gaziantep to emerge victorious, narrowly edging out their visitors by the odd goal.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gaziantep win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gaziantep win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gaziantep would win this match.
