Two League Two teams will lock horns in the first round of the EFL Cup on Tuesday evening, as Grimsby Town welcome Crewe Alexandra to Blundell Park.
Grimsby have picked up one point from their first two league games of the season to sit in 18th position, while Crewe have collected six points from their opening two matches to occupy second behind Walsall.
Match preview
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Grimsby started their 2022-23 League Two campaign with a 2-0 defeat at Leyton Orient on July 30, but they managed to pick up a point in a 1-1 draw with Northampton Town on Saturday.
Paul Hurst's side were actually behind until the 88th minute of the contest in Cleethorpes, with Jordan Maguire-Drew coming up with a leveller in the final exchanges to move Grimsby off zero points in the division.
The Mariners secured a return to League Two via the National League playoffs last season, so their main focus for the 2022-23 campaign will be to consolidate at this level once again.
Grimsby have not won a League Cup fixture since beating Macclesfield Town on penalties in 2019, losing to Chelsea and Morecambe in their last two matches in the competition.
The Mariners will be taking on Crewe for the first time since 2019, when they suffered a 2-0 home loss, but this will be the first League Cup game between the two sides since September 1990, when Crewe ran out 1-0 winners in the first round.
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Crewe, meanwhile, were relegated from League One last season, finishing bottom of the table, having only picked up 29 points from their 46 matches.
The Alex have started their 2022-23 League Two campaign in impressive fashion, recording a 2-1 win over Rochdale on July 30 before running out 3-0 winners over Harrogate Town on Saturday, which has left them in second position in the table on six points.
Alex Morris's side will fancy their chances of making a strong push for promotion this term, and they have a huge match away to Salford City next weekend before back-to-back home league fixtures against Sutton United and Northampton Town.
Crewe have reached the third round of the League Cup on 10 separate occasions, including in 2008, while they famously managed to reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup in 1888.
The Railwaymen have lost three of their last four matches in the League Cup, though, including a 3-0 defeat to Leeds United in the second round last season.
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Team News
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Grimsby boss Hurst will make a number of alterations to the side that took to the for the first whistle against Northampton on Saturday afternoon.
Ollie Battersby is expected to be one of the changes, with the 21-year-old likely to be given the opportunity to impress between the sticks.
Maguire-Drew came off the bench to net the late leveller for the Mariners on Saturday, and he is also now set to come in for a starting role here.
As for Crewe, Morris's side are seemingly building some momentum at the start of the new season, but the head coach will take the opportunity to rest a number of his key players here.
Courtney Baker-Richardson came off the bench to score against Harrogate on Saturday and is expected to be handed a start in a forward area here.
Charlie Colkett, Regan Griffiths and Oliver Finney could also come into the side, while there is expected to be a spot between the sticks for 18-year-old goalkeeper Tom Booth.
Grimsby Town possible starting lineup:
Battersby; Efete, Waterfall, Smith, Pearson; Morris, Wearne, Holohan; Maguire-Drew, Taylor, Khouri
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Booth; Mellor, McDonald, Offord, Colkett; Thomas, Uwakwe; Griffiths, Leshabela, Finney; Baker-Richardson
We say: Grimsby Town 0-1 Crewe Alexandra
Crewe look strong at League Two level this season and will fancy their chances of overcoming a second-string Grimsby on Tuesday night. We are expecting it to be a tight match, as Crewe will also make a number of changes, but the visitors should have enough to progress to the second round.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 45.09%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
