High-flying Hatayspor could consolidate second place in the Super Lig with a victory on Saturday morning when they welcome Antalyaspor to the New Hatay Stadium.
The hosts have won four and drawn one of their last six home matches in the Turkish top flight, while the visitors are looking to extend their unbeaten away record to four games.
Match preview
Hatayspor were unable to extend their unbeaten league run to five matches as they were beaten 1-0 away against Adana Demirspor just before the international break.
A 64th-minute strike from Yunus Akgun condemned Omer Erdogan's side to their second defeat on the road this campaign, however they remain in a strong position in the Super Lig.
The 2020 second-tier champions, who finished sixth in the top flight last season, remain in second place despite their most recent loss, though the gap to the top of the table has been increased to seven points following Trabzonspor's victory against Besiktas.
Hatayspor have never competed in Europe before, but their strong start to the campaign suggests that they have made significant progress in recent years which could help them secure a Champions League spot.
The Star of the South won both of their meetings against Antalyaspor last season by an aggregate score of 9-2, so they will be full of confidence heading into Saturday's fixture.
As for Antalyaspor, they were sitting in the relegation zone just under a month ago with nine points from their opening 10 Super Lig matches, however since then they have claimed back-to-back victories which has helped them move out of the bottom four.
A brace from Fredy helped the Scorpions win 2-1 away against Giresunspor, before a 49th-minute strike from Paul Mukairu secured a slender 1-0 victory at home to Altay on November 6.
Alfons Groenendijk's side, who are now sitting five points clear of the relegation zone, have won each of their last three home matches across all competitions without conceding, including an emphatic 5-0 win in the Turkish Cup against Diyarbekirspor.
However, after conceding nine times in two fixtures against Hatayspor last season, Antalyaspor will be wary of the threat that Saturday's opponents are likely to pose.
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Team News
Hatayspor will be without midfielders Onur Ergun and Isaac Sackey, as they are both suffering with muscle injuries.
Munir – who has kept five clean sheets in the Super Lig this season, more than any other goalkeeper in the division – is expected to start between the sticks, while Fatih Kurucuk and Burak Oksuz are set to partner each other at centre-back.
Former Manchester United and Stoke City forward Mame Biram Diouf will likely lead the line, and he could be supported by wingers Saba Lobzhanidze and Ayoub El Kaabi.
As for Antalyaspor, Enzo Crivelli, Haji Wright and Dogukan Nelik are all ruled out with injuries, though Andrea Poli is in contention to feature after recovering from a muscle problem.
Former Borussia Dortmund midfielder Nuri Sahin will be hoping he can force his way into the first XI, while Amilton and Dogukan Sinik are set to support Mukairu in attack.
Hatayspor possible starting lineup:
Munir; Corekci, Kurucuk, Oksuz, Adekugbe; Traore, Ribeiro, Boudjemaa; Lobzhanidze, Diouf, El Kaabi
Antalyaspor possible starting lineup:
Boffin; Kudryashov, Naldo, Sari; Balci, Sahin, Fredy, Vural; Amilton, Sinik; Mukairu
We say: Hatayspor 1-0 Antalyaspor
Hatayspor will be keen to bounce back from their defeat last time out and should have enough quality to secure all three points on Saturday.
Antalyaspor are expected to tighten up at the back for their trip to the New Hatay Stadium, so a closely-fought contest could be on the cards, however, we expect the hosts to edge out their opponents with a narrow victory on home soil.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hatayspor win with a probability of 55.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Antalyaspor had a probability of 20.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hatayspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for an Antalyaspor win it was 0-1 (6.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hatayspor would win this match.
