Hoffenheim take on Borussia Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, with the visitors looking to stay in the hunt for a Europa League qualification position.
The hosts, meanwhile, are still not completely safe from relegation, with Sebastian Hoeness's side six points clear of the bottom three having played one game more than Hertha Berlin in the relegation playoff spot.
Match preview
© Reuters
Hoeness's recent shift to a more pragmatic style suggests that the 38-year-old had become increasingly concerned of his side being embroiled in a shock relegation battle.
Indeed, Hoffenheim are certainly not winning any entertainment prizes at present, having drawn 0-0 without even having a shot on target for the second successive match.
However, it was still an impressive point gained at title chasing RB Leipzig on Friday night.
Julian Nagelsmann's side certainly played the more progressive football as they looked to close the gap to league leaders Bayern Munich to two points, having 16 shots and 64% possession across the 90 minutes, but Die Roten Bullen could not find the breakthrough against a stubborn Hoffenheim rearguard.
With Hertha's COVID-19 outbreak meaning that Pal Dardai's side are likely to have several games in hand before they play again, the relegation picture is likely to remain an uncertain one in the coming weeks.
As such, Hoeness seems unlikely to open up any more against a Gladbach outfit who are capable of dismantling any side in transition on their day.
© Reuters
Indeed, Gladbach's motivation was clear for all to see against high-flying Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday, after news had broken that current Frankfurt boss Adi Hutter will replace Marco Rose as Gladbach manager next season.
Die Fohlen produced an inspired performance and result in front of their future boss accordingly, running out comfortable 4-0 winners against a side currently in the driving seat to qualify for next season's Champions League.
Gladbach, who have scored more goals from set pieces than any other side in the Bundesliga this season, broke the deadlock from a corner after Jonas Hofmann found Matthias Ginter to head home at the near post after only 10 minutes.
Luka Jovic and Stefan Ilsanker both missed headed chances to level the proceedings prior to half time, with Hofmann marking his return to the side by squeezing a strike past Kevin Trapp, before another Hofmann corner led to Ramy Bensebaini thumping an emphatic header home to wrap up the three points.
Substitutes Patrick Herrmann and Hannes Wolf combined to add further gloss to the victory, with Rose hoping that his side can continue their recently discovered momentum in order for him to depart the club with a Europa League place for next campaign.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Hoffenheim's treatment room remains an extremely busy one, with Florian Grillitsch potentially set to miss the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury he sustained last time out against Leipzig.
Benjamin Hubner, Ermin Bicakcic and Dennis Geiger have already been ruled out of playing again this campaign, while Kevin Akpoguma, Kevin Vogt, Sebastian Rudy, Mijat Gacinovic, Kostas Stafylidis and Sargis Adamyan are all doubts to feature against Gladbach.
Should Rudy not be able to start after his recent knock, Havard Nordtveit may replace Grillitsch in midfield, with the former West Ham United man a potential option to come into the defence, too.
Gladbach, meanwhile, remain without Lars Stindl due to a muscle injury, while goalkeeper Yann Sommer serves the second of his two-match ban for receiving a straight red card against Hertha.
Deputy stopper Tobias Sippel impressed by making four saves to keep a clean sheet against Frankfurt, so Rose will have plenty of confidence in the 33-year-old to go again between the posts in what is likely to be an unchanged XI from the superb 4-0 win, although Christoph Kramer is available again after the midfielder served his one-match suspension.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Nordtveit, Posch, Richards; Kaderabek, Rudy, Samassekou, Sessegnon; Baumgartner; Bebou, Kramaric
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sippel; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Lazaro, Zakaria, Neuhaus, Hofmann; Plea, Thuram
We say: Hoffenheim 1-2 Borussia Monchengladbach
Now that they have little to lose, Gladbach appear to be finding their stride once again, with several players potentially looking to impress their future manager Hutter, albeit from afar on Wednesday.
Hoffenheim have improved defensively recently, but a third successive clean sheet feels beyond them. As such, we can envisage them falling to a narrow defeat, but no outcome would come as a surprise here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
