Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.85%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 35.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.