Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sutton United in this match.