With their hopes of a playoff place on the line, Romania travel to rock-bottom Liechtenstein for their final game of World Cup 2022 Qualifying on Sunday.
As for the confidence-depleted hosts, Group J cannot end soon enough after they were embarrassed 9-0 by Germany on Thursday night.
Match preview
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Germany may have been hit by coronavirus-enforced absences before their meeting with Liechtenstein, but any hopes of the world's 190th-ranked nation producing the shock result of all shock results were mere fantasies on matchday nine.
After Jens Hofer's ninth-minute red card for catching Leon Goretzka with a boot to the face, Germany showed no mercy, with Thomas Muller and Leroy Sane scoring twice on the day while two own goals from Liechtenstein defenders also contributed to their downfall.
Unsurprisingly eliminated with one game still left to play, this week's hosts are consigned to a fifth-placed finish in Group J having taken just one point from their nine fixtures so far, which somewhat impressively came against Armenia last month.
However, since holding Joaquin Caparros's side to a 1-1 stalemate, Martin Stocklasa's side have succumbed to three successive defeats to North Macedonia, Iceland and Germany, scoring zero goals and conceding a whopping 17 in that stretch.
Despite shipping nine to Germany, Liechtenstein's 32 goals conceded does not represent the leakiest defence in UEFA Qualifying - that belongs to Gibraltar's 34 - but their campaign is not expected to end on anything other than a sour note this weekend.
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A total of 14 goals were scored across the three Group J games on Thursday night, but none of them belonged to Romania or Iceland, who shared the spoils in a tightly-fought goalless stalemate during the penultimate matchday.
Mirel Radoi's side therefore missed a golden opportunity to steal a march over North Macedonia in the race for the playoff spot, and their destiny is now out of their own hands before they travel to Liechtenstein this weekend.
Romania now occupy third place in the Group J standings - one point behind North Macedonia and two clear of Armenia - so they must simply get the job done against Liechtenstein and hope that Iceland can do them a favour against North Macedonia on Sunday.
Due to their inferior goal difference, nothing less than three points will do for the world's 41st-ranked nation - who are desperately seeking to end their 24-year absence from the World Cup - but they have only lost one of their last six games in World Cup qualifying.
Romania have impressively kept five clean sheets during that streak as well, and Radoi's men eased to a 2-0 win over Liechtenstein on home soil back in September, which represented their fifth win from five attempts against the minnows.
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Team News
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Liechtenstein defender Hofer will be unavailable for this contest following his early red card against Germany, but Martin Marxer is back from his own ban.
Marxer is a candidate to take Hofer's place in the rearguard, but Rafael Grunenfelder could get the nod, and attacker Yanick Frick is a doubt after lasting just 29 minutes of Thursday's thrashing.
Should the former Livorno man not make the cut, his brother Noah Frick or Fabio Wolfinger could partner Dennis Salanovic up top.
Meanwhile, Romania right-back Andrei Ratiu will take his place in the stands due to a yellow card suspension, so Cristian Manea is in line to deputise at the back.
Valentin Mihaila would have returned from his own ban to be available but did not make Radoi's squad this time around, and the visiting boss may be tempted into some changes up top.
Reading's George Puscas and Parma's Dennis Man are among the options for change for Radoi, but Cluj striker Denis Alibec is now without a goal in nine international appearances.
Liechtenstein possible starting lineup:
Buchel; Yildiz, Kaufmann, Malin, Grunenfelder, Goppel; Sele, Meier, Hasler; Salanovic, N. Frick
Romania possible starting lineup:
Nita; Manea, Chiriches, Nedelcearu, Bancu; Morutan, Marin, Stanciu; Hagi, Puscas, Ivan
We say: Liechtenstein 0-3 Romania
The result of this game will pale into insignificance for Romania should North Macedonia produce the goods against Iceland, but Radoi's men will seek to rediscover their goalscoring touch against their lowly hosts.
Liechtenstein have been leaking goals at an alarming rate in Group J but should keep the scoreline at a more respectable level this time, with Romania hardly renowned for any sort of ruthlessness.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 52.36%. A win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 24.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Liechtenstein win was 1-0 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Romania would win this match.
