Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (7.85%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 1-0 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
