Mainz 05 will welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to the Mewa Arena for their final Bundesliga fixture of the 2021-22 campaign on Saturday.
The hosts will be looking to claim their third consecutive league win, while the visitors are seeking to avoid an eighth successive league game without a win.
Match preview
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Having finished each of the last five Bundesliga seasons in the bottom half of the table, Mainz are on course to end the 2021-22 season in the top half following back-to-back wins over Bayern Munich and Hertha Berlin.
A 3-1 success at home against the champions was followed by a 2-1 away win at Hertha last weekend, with Stefan Bell scoring an 81st minute winner to secure all three points.
Bo Svensson's side currently sit ninth in the table with 45 points, six points better off than last season's final total with a game to spare, and they could climb to eighth with a victory on Saturday if Hoffenheim fail to beat Borussia Monchengladbach.
Mainz have preferred playing on home soil this season as they have accumulated 34 of their 45 points at the Mewa Arena. They did, however, lose 2-0 at home against Frankfurt in this fixture last season.
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Eintracht Frankfurt are sure to have one eye on next Wednesday's Europa League final in Seville against Rangers, but they will be keen to head into that game on a high with a win in their final league game of the season.
Die Adler have failed to win any of their last seven Bundesliga matches, including the 1-1 draw at home against Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend, which saw Goncalo Paciencia score just his third goal of the campaign to cancel out Alassane Plea's opener.
Oliver Glasner's side currently sit 12th in the table, 19 points and seven places worse off than last season, and a victory on Saturday against Mainz will not be enough for them to sneak into the top half.
Frankfurt have picked up seven points from their last three Bundesliga meetings against Mainz, more than from the seven previous top-flight encounters against them combined.
After winning the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season, a victory this weekend for Die Adler would see them do the double in the league over Mainz for the very first time.
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Team News
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Mainz boss Svensson has revealed that right-back Daniel Brosinski will start on Saturday, which will likely see Silvan Widmer – who scored in the win at Hertha last weekend – drop to the substitutes' bench.
Dominik Kohr, who penned a new four-year contract on Thursday, is expected to start in centre-midfield alongside Leandro Martins and Anton Stach, while centre-back Jeremiah St Juste is set to play his final game for the club as he has agreed to join Sporting Lisbon this summer.
Top scorer Jonathan Burkardt, who has scored three goals in his last three home matches, is expected to partner Karim Onisiwo in attack.
Niklas Tauer is available to feature after serving a two-match suspension, while South Korea international Lee Jae-sung is the only injury concern for the hosts as he continues to recover from a knee problem.
As for Frankfurt, Glasner is likely to rest a number of his key players ahead of the Europa League final on Wednesday.
Rafael Borre (muscle), Jesper Lindstrom, Martin Hinteregger (both hamstring) and Diant Ramaj (knee) are all struggling with injuries and are set to remain sidelined this weekend.
Thirty-eight-year-old Japanese centre-back Makoto Hasebe could make his 358th Bundesliga appearance this weekend; Peru's Claudio Pizarro (490 games) and Poland's Robert Lewandowski (383 games) are the only two foreign players to have made more appearances in the German top flight.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Dahmen; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Brosinski, Martins, Stach, Kohr, Martin; Burkardt, Onisiwo
Eintracht Frankfurt possible starting lineup:
Trapp; Tuta, Hasebe, Ilsanker; Da Costa, Hrustic, Barkok, Lenz; Hauge, Lammers; Paciencia
We say: Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Frankfurt's minds will understandably be on next week's Europa League final, and although they will look to win in the Bundesliga on Saturday, the visitors may struggle if they are to field an under-strength side.
Mainz head into this fixture on a high and we can see them securing maximum points on home soil to end the season in style.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Eintracht Frankfurt had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Eintracht Frankfurt win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
