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Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 35
Apr 30, 2021 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Strasbourg

Marseille
1 - 1
Strasbourg

Benedetto (86')
Rongier (55'), Lirola (81'), Milik (90+2'), Gueye (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Mitrovic (73')
Kone (53'), Diallo (85')

Preview: Marseille vs. Strasbourg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Strasbourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Marseille will aim to break into the top five of the Ligue 1 table when they welcome Strasbourg to the Orange Velodrome on Friday evening.

Les Olympiens' strong form continued with a 3-1 win over Reims last time out, whereas the visitors' winless run stretched to three games with defeat to Nantes.


Match preview

Marseille manager Jorge Sampaoli pictured in March 2021© Reuters

Dimitri Payet grabbed the headlines for his match-winning brace in last weekend's success against Reims, but either side of his two strikes on the day, the 34-year-old chalked up his 100th assist in Ligue 1 as Arkadiusz Milik put the cherry on the icing on the cake.

With eight goal contributions (three goals, five assists) to boast from his last four in all competitions, the inspirational Payet is one of many Olympiens players relishing their new roles under Jorge Sampaoli, whose side have all the traits of the Marseille that fans used to know and love.

Having taken 10 points from the last 12 on offer in Ligue 1, sixth-placed Marseille are closing in on Lens in the final European spot, and another victory this week would see Sampaoli's side temporarily leapfrog the newly-promoted side into fifth before Sang et Or do battle with Paris Saint-Germain 24 hours later.

PSG were the last team to travel home from the Orange Velodrome with three points in the bag, as Marseille have won five and drawn one on familiar territory since being bested by the champions on February 7, and Sampaoli's team will also be out to score at least three goals for the fourth game in a row - a feat last achieved under the tutelage of Marcelo Bielsa in 2014.

Unless Lens can somehow defy the odds and come up trumps at the Parc des Princes, Marseille should occupy the fifth and final European spot heading into their final three matches - all of which are relatively friendly fixtures against Saint-Etienne, Angers and Metz - three sides with virtually nothing to play for.

Strasbourg manager Thierry Laurey pictured in February 2020© Reuters

If recent reports are accurate, Thierry Laurey will be taking charge of four more games for Strasbourg before stepping down from his post, and the Bordeaux-linked 57-year-old still has some work to do before he can rest easy in the Coureurs dugout.

The visit of Nantes represented a prime opportunity to get back to winning ways last time out, and Ludovic Ajorque's header - his 13th goal of the season - put them in control just before the break, but Jean-Charles Castelletto and Ludovic Blas boosted Nantes' survival hopes at the expense of Strasbourg's.

Laurey's men are not in any immediate danger as they lie 15th in the table, but they are only six points clear of the automatic relegation places with four games remaining, so another poor performance at the Orange Velodrome and they may very well start to look over their shoulder.

Strasbourg can only boast one win from their last six in the top flight, although that victory was on the road as they beat Bordeaux 3-2 on April 4, and since the start of December, only three of their 11 league matches away from home have ended in defeat.

A goal from now-Aston Villa midfielder Morgan Sanson propelled Marseille to a 1-0 win on Strasbourg's turf earlier in the season, and Les Olympiens boast a 12-game unbeaten home run against their opponents - most recently losing 1-0 all the way back in March 1997.

Marseille Ligue 1 form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Strasbourg Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

Marseille's Duje Caleta-Car pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Marseille duo Boubacar Kamara and Lucas Perrin both had to be withdrawn through injury against Reims, but their issues are not thought to be serious and both men should be in contention to feature this weekend.

However, Perrin's place in the back three could be in jeopardy as Duje Caleta-Car returns from a two-game suspension, and Jordan Amavi is being tipped to make a long-awaited comeback this weekend, albeit probably as a substitute.

Hiroki Sakai will be absent and Pape Gueye has emerged as a fresh doubt, but Valentin Rongier could earn a recall to the engine room if Kamara and Gueye fail to prove their fitness in time.

Strasbourg right-back Frederic Guilbert returns from suspension for the trip to Marseille, but creative hub Adrien Thomasson will miss out for an accumulation of yellow cards.

Adrien Lebeau is a like-for-like replacement, but he has not played a single minute of top-flight football this term, so Laurey may revert to a back five and retain Ibrahima Sissoko, Dimitri Lienard and Jean-Eudes Aholou in their midfield roles.

Mohamed Simakan - soon to join RB Leipzig - remains in the treatment room, and he is being kept company by Bingourou Kamara and Majeed Waris, but Lamine Kone and Lebo Mothiba are both reported to have recovered from knee injuries and could rejoin the squad.

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Balerdi, Gonzalez, Caleta-Car; Lirola, Kamara, Rongier, Nagatomo; Thauvin, Milik, Payet

Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Sels; Guilbert, Kone, Djiku, Mitrovic, Caci; Sissoko, Aholou, Lienard; Ajorque, Diallo


SM words green background

We say: Marseille 2-0 Strasbourg

Marseille have a spot in continental competition firmly in their sights, and it is difficult to back anything other than a fifth home win on the trot for Sampaoli's charges.

Strasbourg should have the firepower needed to avoid being dragged into a late scrap for survival, but we cannot see them springing a surprise against the in-form Olympiens this week.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Strasbourg had a probability of 23.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Strasbourg win it was 0-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Marseille vs Strasbourg

Marseille
88.0%
Draw
9.8%
Strasbourg
2.2%
92
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Marseille's Duje Caleta-Car pictured in January 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207


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