Lorient have an opportunity to end a 10-match winless run when they travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to face Metz on Sunday.
The side from Bretagne have been shut out of their last four Ligue 1 contests, while Metz are second from the bottom, but only three points behind Lorient in the table.
Match preview
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It has been a difficult month of December once again for the Metz defence, who have been under siege, allowing seven goals in their previous two games.
After it appeared that this team were beginning to build some momentum from their form in November when they finished the month unbeaten in five matches in all competitions, it has to be incredibly discouraging for Frederic Antonetti to see his players backslide like they are at the moment.
You have to go back a long while to remember the last time that they won a top-flight encounter in their own backyard, failing to win their previous 16 matches played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1, which currently ties the record set by Dijon (between 2020 and 2021) and Troyes (between 2015 and 2016).
If previous history is any indication, then the odds of them surviving descent into Ligue 2 are not good given that 76% of French clubs at this level who have collected the same amount of points as Metz currently boast (12) have gone on to be relegated.
Winning in this league is not easy, especially when you find yourself chasing a match as much as Metz have this season, with four of their last seven goals conceded happening in the opening half of play.
Their strategy of overloading the midfield with five players has not worked throughout most of the campaign, leaving the back three with a ton of ground to cover as their penalty area has turned into a shooting gallery in recent games.
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While Metz have been poor at home, it is the opposite story for Les Merlus, who are winless in their last 24 away fixtures in Ligue 1, the longest current streak in the division and their history.
When you put up the numbers that they have of late, it is no surprise to see them struggling with only five targeted efforts over their last three encounters.
Christophe Pelissier likes to see his team play out from the back with a patient possession-based approach, which does not usually see them get dominated on the stats sheet, although it also has not earned them a lot of positive results.
Their passing and short-medium combinations have been lacking throughout this campaign as they have failed to create enough space to exploit their opponents.
One area of their game that has seen a significant drop-off this season is their ability to score goals, failing to find the back of the net in five of their last six top-flight encounters after only being shut out twice in their first 23 games played this year in all competitions.
Most teams are at their best when finding an early breakthrough, but that has not been the case for Lorient, who have failed to win their last three encounters in which they have scored first.
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Team News
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Metz have been hurting on the back end throughout the fall as centre-back Sikou Niakate has been out since October with muscular problems, while Matthieu Udol is not available due to a cruciate ligament rupture.
It seems as though a change in teams has reinvigorated striker Nicolas de Preville, as he already has four goals in his inaugural campaign with Les Grenats, three more than in his previous season at Bordeaux, as he is tied with Fabien Centonze for the team lead.
Metz made four changes to their starting 11 last Sunday with Boubacar Traore replacing Kevin N'Doram in the midfield, Farid Boulaya took the place of Pape Sarr and Ibrahima Niane was the lone striker up high against Les Monegasques, replacing De Preville.
Lorient are missing a pair of defenders at the moment as Loris Mouyokolo is out with a sprained ankle and Moritz Jenz might not be ready to return quite yet from his thigh problem.
Terem Moffi remains perhaps the most critical contributor to this side, but he has not been scoring as much as the club had hoped, with only two goals this season after netting 14 times in 2020-21.
They have been getting some excellent contributions from Julien Laporte, who has been solid at centre-back alongside Leo Petrot and Houboulang Mendes, scoring twice, putting him in second on the team, just two back of Armand Lauriente for the lead.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Jemerson, Kouyate, Bronn; Delaine, N'Doram, Pajot, Centonze; Sarr, Nguette; De Preville
Lorient possible starting lineup:
Nardi; Mendes, Laporte, Petrot; Silva, Boisgard, Abergel, Le Fee, Monconduit; Grbic, Moffi
We say: Metz 1-1 Lorient
When you look at the storylines heading into this match with Metz being so poor at home but Lorient struggling as much on the road, it seems like a draw is the logical result given that neither team have been exceptional in any one department this season, but they usually do just enough to get by once in a while.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
