Nacional host Famalicao in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Saturday afternoon as both teams aim to move away from the relegation places.
The hosts put in one of their best performances of the season last time out, picking up a point away from home against Benfica, while Joao Pedro Sousa's men were defeated 1-0 by Vitoria de Guimaraes.
Match preview
© Reuters
Bolso managed to pick up a point on the road on Monday after putting in an impressive display against a depleted Benfica side suffering from a coronavirus outbreak within the first-team squad.
The point could prove pivotal in their fight for survival as it moved them one point clear of the relegation playoff place.
Scoring goals has been the real issue for Luis Freire's side this season - in their opening 15 top-flight games in 2020-21, the Estadio da Madeira outfit have only put the ball in the back of the net on 13 occasions.
Freire will be hoping his side can harness the momentum from their positive result last time out and continue their rise up the Primeira Liga standings.
It has been an equally tough start to the current campaign for Famalicao as the two teams are level on points with only goal difference separating them.
The Estadio Municipal de Famalicao outfit appear to be suffering from a hangover following their sensational 2019-20 campaign.
Sousa's side finished sixth last season but have been unable to build on that fabulous finish this time around.
They are currently hovering just a place above Gil Vicente, who occupy the relegation playoff place, and will be seeing this weekend's encounter as the perfect opportunity to put some daylight between themselves and the drop zone.
Nacional Primeira Liga form: LWLLLD
Nacional form (all competitions): WLLLLD
Famalicao Primeira Liga form: DLLLWL
Team News
© Reuters
Twenty-six-year-old centre-forward Brayan Riascos is Nacional's only injury concern coming into this one.
Freire is likely to keep faith with the same starting XI that snatched a point at the Estadio da Luz, meaning Bryan Rochez is set to lead the line once again after bagging against Benfica.
Argentine midfielder Joaquin Pereyra is suspended for this upcoming clash after collecting five yellow cards already.
Centre-forward Leonardo Campana is the only other absentee for Famalicao after the 20-year-old picked up a hamstring injury.
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Guimaraes; Witi, Correia, Henrique, Souza; Borges; Gorre, Ramos, Koziello, Thill; Rochez
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Vana; Patrick, Queiros, Babic, Vinagre; Ugarte, Lukovic; Dias, Kraev, Robert; Guedes
We say: Nacional 1-1 Famalicao
We expect it to be a tight, low-scoring affair between two evenly matched teams desperate not to let the other gain an advantage. They are both involved in a relegation scrap at the moment, and every point is precious, meaning they could be happy to settle for a draw.
Top betting tip
George Cannon
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
