Nashville SC will hope to remain undefeated at Nissan Stadium this year when they host Atlanta United on Thursday.
The Five Stripes are winless in their last six fixtures, while Nashville are unbeaten in their last three games, after a 1-0 win over the Philadelphia Union on Saturday.
Match preview
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At the beginning of a new month, Nashville returned to some old habits from last season, and it worked like a charm, as their defence first approach did a terrific job in shutting down a high-powered Philadelphia Union squad, resulting in a 1-0 victory last weekend.
That defensive-minded approach that manager Gary Smith employed last season to great effect is an area that before their match last Saturday they seemed to stray away from, with varying results.
They are tied for the league lead in draws so far this year with six, mainly because they have continuously dug themselves an early hole, coming back from 2-0 down three times to pick up a point and then earning four points from losing positions in back-to-back games to end the month of June.
A team whose biggest asset is their defensive prowess are tough to beat when they draw first blood, losing only two of their 14 regular season matches in franchise history when they score the opening goal, and they are unbeaten when scoring first at home.
An expansion side in 2020, it would come as no surprise to see this team, currently in fourth place, climb to the top of the Eastern Conference table by the end of June, with their next four games coming against teams on the outside of the playoff picture, with three of those games being played in the music city.
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Almost nothing has gone the way of the Five Stripes through the first 11 games of 2021, as they are marred in a six-game winless streak and have failed to score in three successive fixtures.
They have been depleted on the injury front while also losing several key players on international duty, but the 2018 MLS Cup champions are quite simply underperforming even despite all of that.
Gabriel Heinze has said that he will not change the way they play but instead will try to fix what is going wrong, which will be a tall order for a team that have been shut out of five league matches in this campaign and have failed to win a game away from home in 2021.
Atlanta have made it very easy on opposing goalkeepers and defences to shut them out lately, firing three shots or fewer on target in each of their last three games.
If there is an encouraging sign for this team at the moment, it could be the fact that they are better off right now than they were in 2020, currently on 12 points after 11 fixtures, one more than they had a year ago at this point.
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Team News
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Nashville will be without three players because of the Gold Cup, including defender Alistair Johnston who is representing Canada, midfielder Anibal Godoy has been selected for Panama and centre-back Walker Zimmerman will be with the United States.
Last weekend, central midfielder Dax McCarty surpassed Brad Davis for fifth all-time in MLS history in matches played by an outfield player with 393, while also overtaking Bobby Boswell for sixth place all-time in games started by an outfield player with 361.
Midfielder Randall Leal has been a key contributor for Nashville this season, notching his team-leading fourth assist last Saturday, leading the franchise in that category with eight all-time, and also leading the team in 2021 when it comes to shots taken (27) and shots on goal (19).
The long list of Atlanta injuries includes central midfielder Emerson Hyndman, who has a cruciate ligament rupture, while Santiago Sosa, Josef Martinez, Franco Ibarra, Alan Franco and Matheus Rossetto are all questionable again this week with injuries.
Starting goalkeeper Brad Guzan was named to the United States squad for the Gold Cup, and he will be joined by his teammates, defenders George Bello and Miles Robinson.
Youngster Ezequiel Barco will be available this week, but after that, he will be on the list of absentees, having been named to the Argentina Under-23 team for the Olympics, which take place later this summer in Tokyo.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Maher, Anibaba, Romney; Muyl, Leal, Anunga, McCarty, Lovitz; Cadiz, Sapong
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Lundgaard; DeJohn, Walkes, Campbell, Lennon; Barco, Adams, Moreno; Chol, Torres, Lopez
We say: Nashville SC 1-1 Atlanta United
Nashville have only won consecutive games once in their entire MLS history, and they have only won two of their eight matches this season versus teams who are currently outside of the playoff picture.
Atlanta are struggling to win games, but they have been able to get results against some top teams, including drawing the Seattle Sounders, the Philadelphia Union, the New York Red Bulls, and Nashville.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 52.44%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 21.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
