Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and Charlotte FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

New York City FC will be bidding to return to winning ways in the MLS when they continue their campaign at home to Charlotte FC on Wednesday night.

The home side, who are third in the Eastern Conference, have lost their last two to Columbus Crew and Inter Miami, while 11th-placed Charlotte will enter this contest off the back of a 5-0 loss to Los Angeles FC.

Match preview

New York City FC interim manager Nick Cushing on the pitch after the game against the Colorado Rapids after the game at Yankee Stadium on June 19, 2022 © Reuters

New York City finished fourth in the Eastern Conference last season and went on to win the MLS Cup for the first time in their history, overcoming Atlanta United, New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union in the playoffs before beating Portland Timbers on penalties in the final.

Nick Cushing's side are enjoying another strong season, with a record of 12 wins, six draws and six defeats from 24 matches leaving them in third spot in the Eastern Conference on 42 points.

The home team are only one point behind second-placed Montreal and six behind leaders Philadelphia Union, with a game in hand on both sides, but they will enter this match off the back of a 3-2 loss to Inter Miami.

New York City FC also lost 3-2 at Columbus Crew on August 6, while they were held by Montreal at the end of July, with their last victory coming at home to Inter Miami on July 23.

The Pigeons have a busy end to the month, taking on Chicago Fire, Orlando City and DC United in their three after this one, and Cushing will not want the club's recent winless run to extend any further.

Karol Swiderski in action for Charlotte FC on August 3, 2022 © Reuters

Charlotte, meanwhile, will also enter this match off the back of successive defeats, losing 3-2 at home to Chicago Fire before going down 5-0 at Los Angeles FC over the weekend.

The Crown were level with Los Angeles until the 49th minute of the contest, with the hosts scoring five times in a dominant second-half performance, and the defeat has left Christian Lattanzio's side in 11th spot in the Eastern Conference, level on points with 13th-placed Atalanta United.

Charlotte, who were only founded in December 2019, are competing in their first ever MLS campaign, so it has been a learning curve for the club this term.

CLT FC managed to record back-to-back wins over Houston Dynamo and Nashville SC towards the start of July, but they have lost four of their last five in the Eastern Conference, with their only success during the disappointing run coming at home to basement side DC United earlier this month.

New York City FC Major League Soccer form:

Charlotte FC Major League Soccer form:

Charlotte FC form (all competitions):

Team News

Christian Fuchs in action for Charlotte FC on August 6, 2022 © Reuters

New York City will again be missing Keaton Parks due to a calf problem, but the home side are otherwise in strong shape heading into the clash with Charlotte.

Head coach Cushing is expected to resist the temptation to shuffle his pack on Wednesday evening, with the bulk of the XI that took to the field for the first whistle last time out set to keep their spots.

That said, Heber is pushing to be involved in an attacking area and could come into the side, while there might be a change at right-back, with Anton Tinnerholm possibly replacing Nicolas Acevedo.

As for Charlotte, there will be changes from the side that started against Los Angeles at the weekend, with experienced defender Christian Fuchs among those likely to come into the XI.

Jordy Alcivar and McKinze Gaines are also pushing for spots in the side, with the pair potentially featuring in midfield areas for the visitors.

There is not expected to be a change when it comes to the centre-forward spot, though, with Karol Swiderski, who has scored seven league goals this term, set to lead the line once again.

New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson, Tinnerholm, Chanot, Martins, Amundsen; Morales, Moralez; Heber, Rodriguez, Andrade; Magno

Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Fuchs, Walkes, Sobocinski, Mora; Gaines, Bronico, Alcivar; Reyna, Swiderski, Jozwiak

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We say: New York City FC 3-1 Charlotte FC

New York City will be desperate to bounce back from successive defeats, and we are expecting them to triumph on Tuesday night. Charlotte are capable of causing problems, but we are finding it difficult to back anything other than a home success in this contest.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 75.53%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 9.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 1-2 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.