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Newcastle logo
Premier League | Gameweek 28
Mar 5, 2022 at 3pm UK
St James' Park
Brighton logo

Newcastle
2 - 1
Brighton

Fraser (12'), Schar (14')
Joelinton (87')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Dunk (55')
Duffy (63')

Preview: Newcastle United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seeking to extend their unbeaten Premier League run to seven games and move further away from the relegation zone, Newcastle United play host to Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday afternoon.

The visitors, meanwhile, will be looking to avoid a fourth successive league defeat and consolidate their place in the top 10 with a victory at St James' Park.


Match preview

Newcastle United's Joelinton celebrates scoring their first goal on February 26, 2022© Reuters

Newcastle's hopes of Premier League survival have been handed an enormous boost after a positive run of form, in which they have accumulated 14 points from their last six games, has seen them catapult from the foot of the table to 14th place, four points above the relegation zone.

Only Liverpool (18) have picked up more points in the last six top-flight matches than the Magpies, who seem to have been given a new lease of life under head coach Eddie Howe.

A 1-1 draw away at West Ham United ended a three-game winning streak, but they bounced back with a 2-0 success away against 10-man Brentford last weekend. Josh Dasilva's 11th-minute dismissal put the visitors in control and two first-half goals from in-form midfield duo Joelinton and Joe Willock helped secure just their fifth league win of the campaign.

Victories, however, have been hard to come by when locking horns with Brighton; Newcastle have not won any of their nine Premier League meetings against the Seagulls, their worst run against any team in the division.

The Magpies have also failed to score in any of their last four home games against Brighton, but having found the net in 20 of their 25 league matches this season, including a strike in the 1-1 draw at the Amex Stadium earlier this season, Howe's side will be confident of breaching their backline and securing three more precious points on Saturday.

Brighton & Hove Albion manager Graham Potter on February 26, 2022© Reuters

While Newcastle were flying high in February, Brighton ended the month with three successive defeats without scoring. Aston Villa were the latest side to claim maximum points against the Seagulls, winning 2-0 at the Amex last weekend.

Despite dominating proceedings with 67% possession, strikes either side of half time from Matty Cash and Ollie Watkins condemned Graham Potter's men to their seventh league defeat of the season.

Nevertheless, Brighton remain in the top half of the table, where they are hoping to finish for the first time in their Premier League history since their promotion in 2017-18.

The Seagulls travel to St James' Park this weekend with a slightly better away record so far this season, accumulating 19 points on the road compared with 14 secured on home soil. Potter's side have lost only twice in 13 away games, which can only be matched or bettered by the current top four.

With challenging encounters against Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Man City to follow, Saturday's trip to the North-East seems to be Brighton's most favourable fixture on paper in the short term, though one that they are certainly not guaranteed to succeed in, given the contrasting form between the two sides.

Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L

Brighton & Hove Albion form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L


Team News

Newcastle United's Allan Saint-Maximin celebrates scoring their first goal with Joelinton on January 15, 2022© Reuters

Newcastle star Allan Saint-Maximin, who has missed the last two matches with a knock, is doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff. Jacob Murphy is set to continue on the right flank if the Frenchman is not involved.

The Magpies will, however, be without Kieran Trippier (metatarsal fracture), Callum Wilson (calf), Jamal Lewis (groin), Matt Ritchie and Isaac Hayden (both knee) due to injury.

Former Brighton defender Dan Burn, who left the Seagulls in January, is set to start again at centre-back alongside Fabian Schar, with Jamaal Lascelles forced to settle for a place on the substitutes' bench.

Howe is yet to hand big-money signing Bruno Guimaraes his full Premier League debut, with Joelinton, Willock and Jonjo Shelvey all preferred at present to start in centre-midfield.

As for Brighton, Potter has revealed that centre-back Adam Webster is unlikely to feature at St James' Park as he continues to recover from a groin injury.

The Seagulls will also be without Enock Mwepu and Jeremy Sarmiento due to hamstring problems, but Adam Lallana could be in contention to return to the matchday squad.

Should Potter stick with a back three, Marc Cucurella will likely remain as the left-sided centre-back next to Lewis Dunk and Joel Veltman; however, the former could return to left-back if the visitors line up with a four-man defence, with Solly March potentially dropping out as a result for an extra midfielder.

Neal Maupay, who is just one goal away from surpassing Glenn Murray (26) as Brighton's all-time record goalscorer in the Premier League, is expected to lead the line up front alongside Leandro Trossard, who scored a penalty against Newcastle in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Krafth, Schar, Burn, Targett; Willock, Shelvey, Joelinton; Murphy, Wood, Fraser

Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Veltman, Dunk, Cucurella; Lampety, Moder, Bissouma, Mac Allister, March; Trossard, Maupay


SM words green background

We say: Newcastle United 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion

There have been 22 Premier League draws in games involving Newcastle and Brighton so far this season, including the reverse fixture between the two teams, and another closely-fought contest could be on the cards this weekend.

The Seagulls will likely make themselves difficult to break down but we can see the Magpies securing at least a point on home soil to maintain their unbeaten start to 2022.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Newcastle vs Brighton

Newcastle United
61.7%
Draw
26.7%
Brighton & Hove Albion
11.7%
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144


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