Northampton Town and Cheltenham Town resume their League Two campaigns on Thursday when facing off at Sixfields in the first leg of their playoff semi-final tie.
The season may have been curtailed by the coronavirus pandemic, but the playoffs have been given the green light to commence over the next fortnight and Cheltenham will fancy their chances of earning promotion.
Match preview
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A decision was made last week to end the regular season early amid the coronavirus pandemic, with a points-per-game system being implemented to determine the final league table.
Joining champions Swindon Town in League One next season are Crewe Alexander and Plymouth Argyle, leaving one more promotion spot up for grabs.
Northampton and Cheltenham meet over two legs, with both games behind closed doors, for the right to face either Colchester United or Exeter City at Wembley Stadium on June 29.
The Cobblers limped into the playoffs after losing fie of their final seven matches, including a 2-1 reverse at home to Mansfield Town in their most recent outing on March 7.
Keith Curle's side ultimately did enough to hold down sixth place, however, finishing a point better off than Port Vale after 37 matches.
Cheltenham ended the season in far better form than Northampton thanks to a run of five wins and a draw to see out the shortened campaign, giving them a return of 64 points from 36 matches.
As well as finishing six points better off than their semi-final opponents, Cheltenham won 2-1 in the sides' most recent encounter on February 25, with the other match in December finishing 1-1.
The Robins beat Carlisle United and Colchester 1-0 and 2-0 in their last two away outings, meanwhile, but form will likely count for little given the three-month gap between games.
Cheltenham's preparations will also be a lot different for their trip to Sixfields compared to their previous away matches, with away teams expected to travel on the day of games due to a lack of hotels amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Both teams have also had just two-and-a-half weeks to train ahead of the playoffs, so neither will be anywhere near full fitness for Thursday's clash.
Northampton's League Two form: LLWLWL
Cheltenham's League Two form: WWWWWD
Team News
Curle has favoured a 3-5-2 formation this season and that is likely to be his go-to formation for Thursday's clash.
Speaking on Monday, the Northampton boss revealed that he has a fully-fit squad to choose from and has already settled on his starting XI.
Cheltenham have also been back in training for the past couple of weeks and managed to fit in a practice match against Cardiff City last week.
Town boss Michael Duff is pleased with his side's preparations and also has a full selection of players to choose from.
Northampton possible starting lineup:
Arnold; Goode, Turnbull, Wharton; Marshall, McCormack, Hoskins, Watson, Adams; Morton, Oliver
Cheltenham possible starting lineup:
Evans; Raglan, Boyle, Graves; Long, Sheaf, Thomas, Broom, Hussey; Reid, May
We say: Northampton 0-2 Cheltenham
Cheltenham got the better of Northampton in their regular season meetings and ended the campaign in impressive form. Their momentum may have dried up given the three-month gap between fixtures, but we are still backing the Robins to take a convincing lead into the second leg.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.19%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 30.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
