Montenegro play host to Norway on Tuesday evening with the opportunity to open up a six-point margin between themselves and their opponents in Group G.
However, despite their one-sided defeat to Turkey at the weekend, Norway will move back into contention with victory in Podgorica.
Match preview
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At a time when Erling Braut Haaland has established himself as the most in-demand player on the planet, supporters of Norway will naturally expect their national team to challenge for their first appearance at a major tournament since 2000.
However, Saturday's 3-0 reverse at home to Turkey brought followers of the Scandinavian nation back down to earth, leaving them to contemplate the prospect of more disappointment down the line.
Victory on Tuesday evening will change the mood in the camp, but Stale Solbakken is aware that lifting his players so soon after their latest setback will be far from a simple task.
While Norway have still only lost four of their last 18 fixtures in all competitions, their best wins have come against the likes of Romania and Northern Ireland.
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Getting the better of Montenegro would match those results, although it is far from a foregone conclusion given the form of their next opponents.
Since a 7-0 defeat against England in November 2019, Montenegro have lost just once in 11 outings, albeit against lower-level opposition.
Nevertheless, Miodrag Radulovic's team have put together a three-match winning streak, claiming important wins over Latvia and Gibraltar.
The Brave Falcons made hard work of both fixtures, but extending their current run on Tuesday will keep them above the likes of Norway and the Netherlands ahead of the September restart.
Stevan Jovetic has netted three goals during the last two encounters, strengthening the feeling that he will prove crucial to his side's hopes of earning an unlikely place in Qatar.
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Team News
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Radulovic is expected to hand recalls to Stefan Savic and Jovetic after the key duo dropped out of the starting lineup against Gibraltar.
Either Fatos Beqiraj or Uros Djurdjevic will take their place in attack, but Vladimir Jovovic could keep his place ahead of Igor Ivanovic.
Norway will definitely be without Kristian Thorstvedt, who was sent off against Turkey after his introduction as a substitute.
Andre Hansen is also in line to take the place of Rune Jarstein after the first-choice goalkeeper was withdrawn at half time in that game.
Jonas Svensson and Joshua King are options for Solbakken if he wants to make further changes to his team.
Montenegro possible starting lineup:
Mijatovic; Marusic, Savic, Vujacic, Radunovic; Kosovic, Scekic; Jovovic, Jovetic, Haksabanovic; Beqiraj
Norway possible starting lineup:
Hansen; Ryerson, Gregersen, Ajer, Meling; Midtsjo, Odegaard, Berg, Elyounoussi; Haaland, Sorloth
We say: Montenegro 2-2 Norway
With Haaland in their attack, it is difficult for anyone to dismiss Norway's chances against any opposition. Nevertheless, their defence looks vulnerable right now, and we expect a resurgent Montenegro to earn a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 32.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Norway in this match.
