After a painful opening weekend, Wales will travel to Stadio Olimpico to face Italy in round two of the 2025 Six Nations Championship on Saturday afternoon.
Both these sides suffered defeat in the opening round and will now face off in what is widely expected to be the Wooden Spoon decider in this year's competition.
Match preview
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Italy were caught flat-footed in their opening match of this year's Six Nations at Murrayfield last week, conceding three tries in the first half, which saw them enter the break down by 10 points against Scotland.
In the past, a scoreline of 19-9 at the interval would have seen Italy give up and finish the match with a heavy loss, but this current generation of players is different, not only believing that they can compete in Six Nations matches, but actually claim victories.
Despite the poor start last week, the Azzurri erupted in the second half, swiftly bringing the score level with a penalty from Tommaso Allan and an intercept try by Juan Ignacio Brex, but the individual brilliance of Huw Jones and Darcy Graham ultimately denied them what would have been a stunning comeback win.
Indeed, the Italians have come a long way in the last couple of years and are blessed with explosive athletes across their entire 23-man squad, including the duo of Brex and Tommaso Menoncello, who are certainly worthy of consideration as the best centre pairing in the Six Nations.
Historically, Wales have dominated this fixture with 28 wins in their 33 encounters, but this week's hosts have notched up two wins in the last three meetings, including a 24-21 victory in this competition last season.
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It was that three-point defeat at the Principality Stadium last year that genuinely set alarm bells ringing for Wales; however, since then, the Dragons have been in freefall, now on a 13-match losing streak after getting dismantled by France last weekend.
While there were moments to suggest that Gregor Townsend's side have made improvement since the Autumn Series, a 43-0 drubbing at the Stade de France makes it difficult to make a case that an imminent turnaround is on the cards.
Still, Wales simply cannot afford to dwell on the margin or the manner in which they were beaten by Les Bleus, as a loss in Rome this week could see them slip to 12th in the world rankings, falling behind Georgia.
Indeed, this match is likely the Dragons' best shot of bringing an end to their dismal record losing streak in this competition, and the magnitude of this week's contest was summed up perfectly by Welsh legend Dan Biggar, who labelled this their biggest match in the last two decades earlier this week.
Unfortunately for the visitors, if the contest turns into a tense, gritty battle, it could ultimately depend on which team can create a moment of brilliance, and in this regard, most would likely agree that the odds are heavily stacked in Italy's favour.
Italy Six Nations form:
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Italy form (all competitions):
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Wales Six Nations form:
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Wales form (all competitions):
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Team News
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Gonzalo Quesada has made just one just one change to the 23-man squad he sent out in the defeat to Scotland in Edinburgh last week, with wing Jacopo Trulla replacing the injured Simone Gesi on the bench.
Michele Lamaro will continue to captain the team from the openside, with Sebastian Negri again named as the blindside flanker, while Lorenzo Cannone starts at the back of the pack in the number eight jersey.
Lock Niccolo Cannone comes in for Dino Lamb, who moves to the bench, and he will pair up with Federico Ruzza in the second row, while the in-form front row of Simone Ferrari, Giacomo Nicotera and Danilo Fischetti remains unchanged.
For Wales, Taulupe Faletau is poised to make his long-awaited return to international rugby after a frustrating 16-month injury absence, and he will join the base of the pack in the number eight jumper.
At centre, Eddie James of Scarlets is ready to make his debut start for Wales in the Test arena alongside Nick Tompkins, replacing Owen Watkin, who sustained a knee injury in Paris last week.
Henry Thomas and Evan Lloyd will earn their second starts in Test rugby after the set-piece performed well in Paris, with the second-row, half-back, and back-three positions staying unchanged.
Italy starting lineup: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Dino Lamb, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Jacopo Trulla
Wales starting lineup: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Eddie James, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Ben Thomas, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 James Botham, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Evan Lloyd, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Dan Edwards, 23 Blair Murray
We say: Italy 21-18 Wales
These two sides have been on contrasting paths over the last year, with the Italians improving significantly, while Wales have dropped out of the top 10 in the world rankings owing to their dismal 13-match losing streak.
Having failed to post a single point in Paris last week, morale will undoubtedly be dwindling in the Welsh camp, and we feel the Azzurri will take full advantage of it by securing a victory this weekend.
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Devesh Jaganath
