Nottingham Forest square off against Stoke City on Saturday afternoon looking to strengthen their position in the Championship playoffs.
While Forest sit five places clear of their next opponents, the Potters are just four points adrift with one game in hand on their East Midlands hosts.
Match preview
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Having reached the middle of September without recording a league win, Forest supporters would been comfortable with their team avoiding relegation during 2021-22.
However, Steve Cooper has spearheaded the most remarkable of turnarounds, the 42-year-old losing just four of his 24 matches in charge and keeping the club in line for their most successful campaign over the past two decades.
Defeating Arsenal and Leicester City in the FA Cup has created headlines, but it is results such as the 2-0 win away at Blackburn Rovers on Wednesday night which are far more important in the long run.
Forest now occupy sixth position in the standings, a playoff spot being more than acceptable right now, but the East Midlands giants only sit nine points adrift of second place.
Although Cooper will want to keep everyone's feet on the ground, Forest are undeniably the dark horses for automatic promotion having collected 21 points from their last 10 Championship fixtures.
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Forest are the clear favourites to see off Stoke at the weekend, but Michael O'Neill will feel that his Potters side are back on track after two convincing wins.
After posting a 2-0 triumph over Wigan Athletic in the FA Cup, Stoke followed that victory by overcoming Swansea City by a 3-0 scoreline in the league.
Jacob Brown scored for the third game in a row, the 23-year-old now having nine strikes for the campaign having established himself as first choice in attack.
At a time when Forest have won four of their last five games at the City Ground, Stoke have recently collected seven points from a possible 12 on their travels.
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Team News
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Cooper went with a defensive-minded midfield three against Blackburn in midweek, introducing Jack Colback for Philip Zinckernagel.
However, there could be a role reversal on Saturday with the latter returning to the Forest front three, and that may be the only change to the team.
Despite playing the final 21 minutes at Ewood Park, Sam Surridge will almost certainly remain among the replacements due to the form of Keinan Davis.
While there is scope for Stoke switching to a back three, O'Neill could stick with the same formation which proved effective against Swansea, even before their opponents were reduced to 10 men.
Tyrese Campbell will miss out with a knee injury, so either Josh Maja or D'Margio Wright-Phillips will be drafted into the side.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Worrall, Cook, McKenna; Spence, Yates, Garner, Lowe; Zinckernagel, Davis, Johnson
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Bursik; Wilmot, Jagielka, Harwood-Bellis, Tymon; Baker, Allen; Brown, Powell, Philogene-Bidace; Maja
We say: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Stoke City
Having found some form in front of goal, Stoke will be confident of making an impact at the City Ground. However, we cannot back against Forest right now, and it would come as a surprise if Cooper's team did not collect all three points from a hard-fought contest.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
