Relegation-haunted Parma seek to bridge an unimaginable gap against league leaders Inter Milan on Thursday, as the second-from-bottom side attempt to end a record winless streak against the Serie A champions-elect.
With many pundits, coaches and ex-professionals lining up to crown the Nerazzurri as potential Scudetto winners, coach Antonio Conte will expect his in-form team to sweep aside the home side's challenge at the Tardini.
Match preview
© Reuters
Following another regulation win - this time over a much-weakened Genoa outfit at San Siro last weekend - Inter remain an irresistible force in Serie A, with only one target in mind: securing their first Scudetto since 2010 and ending the nearly decade-long dominance of rivals Juventus into the bargain.
Now sitting on 56 points, on only three occasions have Inter gained at least that many after 24 Serie A games in the three-points-for-a-win era, going on to lift the title in each of those campaigns, in a golden spell between 2006 and 2009.
Six wins from their last seven league games, while conceding just one goal during that period and racking up 17 themselves, have resulted in a four-point lead at the top of the table for the Nerazzurri ahead of this midweek round of fixtures. With a deep squad, no major injury concerns to manage and a self-inflicted lack of European commitments, the path could be paved for Antonio Conte to be the first man to lead the club to the championship since Jose Mourinho.
As in a previous winning run around the turn of the year, Inter's star strikers are seemingly taking it in turns to punish opponents of late - it was top scorer Romelu Lukaku who took centre-stage versus Genoa, with a goal after just 32 seconds, while Lautaro Martinez had led the way in the previous success against city rivals Milan.
'El Toro' bounced back from a brief lull in his sky-high standards in the Derby and has now been involved in 17 league goals this season (13 goals, four assists) - as many as he managed in the entirety of 2019-20. Looking sharper and more hungry than at any other stage this campaign, both Lautaro and his teammates will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing down Parma's porous defence on Thursday.
Inter have also kept a clean sheet in each of their last three away matches in the league, so should have every chance of keeping the hosts' goal-shy forwards at bay too.
© Reuters
Having already held Antonio Conte's men to an unexpected 2-2 draw at San Siro this season - an encounter which they really should have won after going two goals to the good through a Gervinho double, but ultimately conceded a heartbreaking equaliser at the death - struggling Parma have repeated that same scoreline in each of their last two league outings.
As in Milan last October, draws with both Spezia and Udinese in the past fortnight came after going 2-0 up but failing to hold on to the lead. Those dropped points were sorely needed too, as the Crociati's period of league games without success ticked over to 15 in La Spezia, representing their worst-ever spell in Serie A.
Stadio Ennio Tardini has not proved a happy home for the Emilians this term, as Parma have picked up only eight points from their 12 home matches so far. Only in 2014, when they were eventually relegated, have they collected fewer at this stage of the season.
A key signifier of the chaos enveloping the club is apparent when noting that, under the management of both Fabio Liverani and current incumbent Roberto D'Aversa, the Gialloblu have used the most players in Serie A this season - an incredible 36 - while relatively settled opponents Inter have fielded the fewest so far (22).
As if their task on Thursday was not tough enough, Parma's misfiring attack - which has now actually produced two goals in two consecutive games, a real rarity given their previous output - could be decimated by injuries for the Nerazzurri's visit.
Certainly, given the circumstances, D'Aversa will treat this clash and those upcoming against Roma and Milan as free shots to nothing, while games with Fiorentina and Benevento in the next month offer more realistic opportunities to claw themselves clear of the drop - if, by then, it is not already too late.
Parma Serie A form: LLLLDD
Inter Milan Serie A form: DWWWWW
Inter Milan form (all competitions): LWDWWW
Team News
© Reuters
Parma coach Roberto D'Aversa, who has rotated relentlessly in search of an elusive first win since re-joining the club, faces a serious striker shortage on Thursday. First-choice target man Andreas Cornelius picked up a thigh problem late on in the draw with Spezia and is set to miss out, while fellow forwards Roberto Inglese, Gervinho and Joshua Zirkzee are doubtful too.
On the plus side, former Azzurri striker Graziano Pelle could return from his muscular injury, but would most likely only be ready for a spot on the bench, while Yann Karamoh is expected to overcome a niggle to start. Either Juraj Kucka or Juan Brunetta could therefore occupy a 'false nine' role, with support from Valentin Mihalia and Karamoh out wide.
In defence, on-loan full-back Andrea Conti (thigh) is struggling to recover in time, so Simone Iacoponi stands ready to deputise on the right.
Inter, meanwhile, have a clean bill of health, as Stefano Sensi is now likely to be available after missing two games with muscle fatigue and can return to the bench, while wing-back sensation Achraf Hakimi will come straight back into the XI following suspension.
Though their next game is not until Monday evening, against Atalanta, Antonio Conte may be tempted into some rare changes, given the relative strength of the opposition. In midfield, Roberto Gagliardini could cover Marcelo Brozovic if required, with Christian Eriksen switching to a deeper role, while Alexis Sanchez scored as a substitute at the weekend and is ready to start up front should Conte decide to offer Lautaro Martinez a rest.
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Iacoponi, Osorio, Gagliolo, Pezzella; Hernani, Brugman, Kurtic; Karamoh, Kucka, Mihaila
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, de Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Barella, Brozovic, Eriksen, Perisic; Sanchez, Lukaku
We say: Parma 1-3 Inter Milan
Few would be bold enough to suggest that the home side can end their winless run against Inter this week, as the gulf between the clubs has only grown wider since the 2-2 draw earlier in the season.
The power, pace and precision the Nerazzurri can offer on the flanks is just one of several factors which make them the overwhelming favourites to run out comfortable winners at the Tardini and stay clear at the top of the table.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 69.71%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Parma had a probability of 12.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.66%) and 1-2 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a Parma win it was 1-0 (3.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
