The stars might be aligning for Alexander Zverev, whose Grand Slam ambition could be fulfilled at the Australian Open when he takes on the finest hard-court player and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner on Sunday.
Having profited from Novak Djokovic's muscle tear in the semi-final, the German superstar and second seed could battle the top seed, who seemed to be struggling with his thigh at the end of his last-four victory over Ben Shelton.
Match preview
© Imago
Even though Sinner's performances on his return to Melbourne Park may have fluctuated, the top seed has still done enough to secure consecutive appearances in the championship match, with the finest of the lot his quarter-final dismantling of home hope Alex de Minaur.
A semi-final against the fierce ball-striking of Shelton could have gone awry had the American's execution on his forehand wing not deserted him when he served for the set at 6-5; however, the top seed broke back and played clinical tennis in the tie-break and sets two and three for a 7-6(2), 6-2, 6-2 victory.
Nevertheless, the final set hinted at some cramping for the youngest player to reach consecutive championship matches at the Aussie Open since Pete Sampras in 1994 and 1995.
While Sinner's elevated level meant Shelton was barely given a sniff, the Italian top seed will face a sterner examination against the second seed, the last man to beat the 23-year-old on a hard court at a Slam.
The top seed's 20 wins on the trot since that loss to Zverev at the US Open two years back put him (23 years, 149 days) behind only John McEnroe (22 years, 197 days) to hit that number of wins on hard-court majors, and he bids for 21 to successfully defend his title.
Having hitherto handled the pressure of a Grand Slam defence commendably, the championship match against a motivated opponent will be a different proposition, despite the world No. 1's expertise on the surface.
© Imago
Zverev's heart-warming words after Djokovic's race was run after one hour and 21 minutes were gratifying, even though his success meant the Aussie Open could get a decider between the top and second seed for the first time since 2019 when No. 1 seed Djokovic faced off with No. 2 Rafael Nadal — the Serbian beat the Spaniard in straights.
Benefitting from only the second men's or women's singles semi-final at a Grand Slam in the Open Era to be decided after a first-set retirement since 2010 – Francesca Schiavone vs Elena Dementieva at Roland Garros – the 23-time tour champion desires some good fortune at a leading event after Dominic Thiem overturned a two-set deficit in the 2020 US Open final and another five-set defeat on the dirt of Roland Garros last year when Carlos Alcaraz claimed sets four and five to win in Paris.
The German star has been given flak for playing within himself in the big moments at the majors; that much was evident in Friday's semi-final victory over Djokovic, against whom he intermittently resisted pulling the trigger while resorting to half-hearted rallies.
Defeating Sinner would require Zverev to play top-shelf tennis and execute at a high level to end the Italian's outstanding run on the surface since the start of last season, with the No. 1 seed's only losses against Alcaraz (twice) and Andrey Rublev.
While Zverev aims to be the third man in over a year to taste a hard-court victory over the Italian, there are questions about the 27-year-old's mettle in the big moments at the leading events, highlighted by final defeats to Thiem and Alcaraz and last year's quarter-final elimination in New York by Taylor Fritz.
However, the 23-time tour winner hopes to be third-time lucky; having been on the right side of Tommy Paul's dip in execution in key moments in sets one and two in his quarter-final, Djokovic's retirement in the semis and Sinner possibly being far from his peak physically, the fates could finally align for the German Down Under.
Indecisiveness has typically been the 27-year-old's undoing in previous championship matches, but he will require the self-assuredness that was perhaps missing to have a chance against the leading player on the men's tour.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
First round: vs. Nicolas Jarry 7-6[2] 7-6[5] 6-1
Second round: vs. Tristan Schoolkate 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-3
Third round: vs. Marcos Giron 6-3 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Holger Rune 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-3 6-2 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Ben Shelton 7-6[2] 6-2 6-2
Alexander Zverev:
First round: vs. Lucas Pouille 6-4 6-4 6-4
Second round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-1 6-4 6-1
Third round: vs. Jacob Fearnley 6-3 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Ugo Humbert 6-1 2-6 6-3 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Tommy Paul 7-6[1] 7-6[0] 2-6 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Novak Djokovic 7-6[5] ret
Head To Head
Cincinnati (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 7-6(9) 5-7 7-6(4)
US Open (2023) - Fourth round: Zverev 6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3
Monte-Carlo Masters (2022) - Quarter-final: Zverev 5-7 6-3 7-6(5)
US Open (2021) - Fourth round: Zverev 6-4 6-4 7-6(7)
Cologne (2020) - Semi-final: Zverev 7-6(3) 6-3
Roland Garros (2020) - Fourth round: Sinner 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3
Despite defeating Zverev in their first match-up on the ATP Tour, Sinner has lost four of the next five meetings, including four defeats on the trot before snapping that run last year in Cincinnati.
Strikingly, the German was the last player to get the better of the top-ranked player at a hard-court slam, defeating the 23-year-old in the fourth round of the 2023 US Open.
Since that loss, Sinner has racked up 20 consecutive wins at hard-court majors to secure last year's title in Melbourne for his first Slam, the US Open in New York and make it to another championship match Down Under.
In that time, the Italian No. 1 player has faced top-10 opponents five times, getting the better of Rublev, Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in Australia last year, defeating Medvedev en route to the title at Flushing Meadows and outwitting De Minaur in this year's last-eight contest at Melbourne Park.
While he defeated Djokovic in Melbourne under unique circumstances, that success means the German star improved to 5-16 against top-10 players at Grand Slams, securing five wins in his recent ten match-ups against elite opponents, having lost his first 11 meetings with the top-ranked players.
We say: Sinner to win in five sets
Since losing to Alcaraz in Beijing, Sinner has racked up 20 wins on the trot, dropping just three sets during that run – against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Shanghai and Schoolkate and Rune at the Aussie Open.
While Zverev's incredible motivation to be third-time lucky at this level is unmistakable, facing the tour's current best player on hard courts may prove a bridge too far for the German player.
Much will be contingent on Sinner's fitness holding out, but the Italian star should record a 14th consecutive success Down Under to delay the second seed's dream.
