The Portland Timbers can move into the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with a victory over Real Salt Lake on Saturday at Providence Park.
On Wednesday, Portland came back to draw 1-1 with the San Jose Earthquakes, while Claret and Cobalt were beaten 1-0 by the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Match preview
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The Timbers began their three-game homestand by pulling out a 1-1 draw against the Quakes in a scrappy affair that saw Portland reduced to 10-men in the dying stages of the match.
After the match, manager Giovanni Savarese said that he was happy to see some of the scuffles take place because it shows how hard they are fighting for one another.
He will hope that they can maintain that fighting spirit in the weeks to come as his side have an opportunity to move back into the playoffs.
This homestand comes at an opportune time for Portland, who have won five of their seven fixtures at Providence Park this year.
They have fought through injury issues all year long, and with five more games to play this month, four of which are against teams above them in the table, they will need to come together and find a way to keep winning.
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After putting together one of their most impressive victories of the season, beating the Colorado Rapids 3-0, Salt Lake could not maintain that momentum, going winless in their last two fixtures and failing to score each time.
On Wednesday, they held their own against a tough LA Galaxy side but ultimately came up short as they are now just barely clinging to the last playoff position in the Western Conference.
Freddy Juarez has seen his team fight hard over the past two weeks, but they have nothing to show for it, and as a result they are in a very precarious position in the table.
This team have only won two fixtures on the road this season, and earning a third would come at a perfect time for them before they embark on a two-game homestand against two sides below them in the table in Austin FC and the Houston Dynamo.
Salt Lake have been a very streaky team all year, starting their 2021 campaign with five goals and two wins but earning only one point in their following two fixtures, and that trend has continued throughout the season.
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Team News
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Portland will be without Jaroslaw Niezgoda following his left ACL surgery, Ismaila Jome underwent left Achilles tendon surgery, Jeff Attinella had season-ending right rectus femoris surgery and Andy Polo had season-ending knee surgery, while Dario Zuparic has a right lower leg issue.
Diego Chara will be suspended after earning two yellow cards this week against the Quakes, and Felipe Mora scored the equaliser versus San Jose, his second goal in three games.
Jeremy Ebobisse, who was not on the matchday roster on Wednesday, has been traded to San Jose in exchange for $1.16m (£830k) in General Allocation Money.
Salt Lake will be missing David Ochoa, Zack Farnsworth and Andrew Brody, who all have undisclosed injuries, while midfielder Damir Kreilach was named to the 28-man roster for the MLS All-Star game.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.27%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 0-1 (6.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
