The New York Red Bulls welcome Sporting Kansas City to the Red Bull Arena in New Jersey this weekend as the 2021 Major League Soccer season gets underway.
While the New York Red Bulls succumbed to a dismal 13th-place overall finish last season, the Wizards won the Western Conference, coming 3rd overall.
Match preview
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As the New York Red Bulls gear up for the new campaign, their first full season under the tutelage of head coach Gerhard Struber, fans will no doubt be in for more of the same in terms of a focus on young players and high-octane pressing.
Despite a poor season last year, the team remain one of the division's most recognisable outfits and this is thanks to the club's clear and definable identity - one very much in line with the Red Bull football formula.
A crucial cog in the success of the team this year is likely to be Struber himself, who started his career in the RB Salzburg academy before a stint in England with Barnsley.
In terms of the squad itself, gone are the likes of Tim Parker and Kaku, with around ten players arriving in their wake and others to potentially follow.
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After storming to victory in the Western Conference last year, Wizards' fans will be expecting more of the same from their beloved team, but a tough away fixture against New York Red Bulls could be a tough test for the side.
Ahead of the new campaign, it is worth mentioning that the team has experienced somewhat of a transition in terms of personnel during the off season, with quite a few old heads making way for a younger generation.
Veteran fan-favourite Matt Besler has left the club while Felipe Gutierrez, Gerso Fernandes, Winston Reid and Erik Hurtado have also parted ways.
With the old guard making way, the team is now markedly younger and Vermes will be heavily relying on this younger generation to kick on from where the side left off last season.
Team News
It is unclear how Struber's men could line up this weekend, but it could reflect elements of a standard 4-2-3-1 formation, which is how the team ended last season.
Amro Tarek could stake his claim at the heart of the defence in the absence of Parker.
The Wizards finished the last campaign playing in a 4-1-4-1 formation, and it is unlikely that Vermes will dispense with a winning formula.
The gaps in the team left by leaving veterans could be filled by the abundance of young talent at the club.
Wilson Harris, Grayson Barber, Ozzie Cisneros and Kaveh Rad could all feature at some point.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Meara; Duncan, Tarek, Long, Pendant; Yearwood, Davis, Royer, Clark, Valot; Barlow
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Lindsey, Puncec, Zusi, Dia; Llie, Russell, Espinoza, Busio, Duke; Shelton
We say: New York Red Bulls 1-2 Sporting Kansas City
Whether or not the New York Red Bulls can get some form together this season is yet to be seen, but if the Wizards play anything like they did last season, they should be able to rise to the occasion this weekend.
Top tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Kansas City would win this match.
