Rosario Central hope to remain unbeaten on home soil at the Copa Sudamericana when they host Bragantino in the first leg of their quarter-final tie from Estadio Gigante de Arroyito on Tuesday.
Canalla advanced to the last eight with a 3-2 aggregate win over Deportivo Tachira last month, while Braga knocked out Independiente del Valle 3-1.
Match preview
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Unlike their domestic campaign so far, Rosario Central have put on a very impressive display to this point of the Copa Sudamericana.
Since losing their opening match in the group stage, they have gone unbeaten in their last seven fixtures at this tournament, making it to the quarter-finals for the first time in their history.
So far in 2021, it has been a tale of two seasons for Kily Gonzalez and his side, who are second from the bottom in the Argentine Primera Division, losing four of their five matches, but they have been a much more formidable opponent in this competition, scoring 13 goals up to this point.
In these two-leg affairs, the team that makes the best adjustments usually come out on top, and that was the case for the Argentines in their Round of 16 tie.
After conceding twice in San Cristobal and allowing nine shots on target, Academia dominated the second leg, outshooting Deportivo 27-9, allowing only three shots on target.
Historically, they have struggled to earn victories against clubs in Brazil, with their last win coming in 2016 over Gremio in the Round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores, only their sixth triumph in 20 matches against Brazilian opponents.
An impressive 2-0 win for Bragantino in the opening leg of their Round of 16 tie with Independiente del Valle was more than enough to see them through to the last eight of this competition, despite a 1-1 draw in the second leg at home.
After losing two of their first three matches in the group stage, Mauricio Barbieri made some nice adjustments to help turn around their fortunes as they won their last three games to top their group.
Making their first appearance at this competition, this high-flying side, the second-highest scoring team in Brazil, have struggled in the final third lately, going goalless in two of their last three league fixtures.
They have had a lot of success away from home lately, losing only one Serie A match on the road this season, while winning five.
In nine matches in all competitions last month, Bragantino conceded eight goals, but they have been much better of late, maintaining two successive clean sheets heading into their game on Tuesday, although they did concede seven shots on target on Friday versus Sport Recife.
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Team News
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Midfielder Emiliano Vecchio scored the only goal in their second leg against Aurinegro to see them through to the last eight, his second of the competition, putting him even with veteran Lucas Gamba for the team lead in this tournament.
Gonzalez made four changes to the starting 11 from their opening leg with Deportivo as Damian Martinez took the place of Fernando Torrent, who is now with Arsenal de Sarandi, while Vecchio replaced Francesco Lo Celso in the middle of the park and in attack, Alan Marinelli and Luca Martinez started instead of Gamba and Marco Ruben.
Braga keeper Cleiton has stopped the last eight shots that he has faced in league play, maintaining three clean sheets so far in eight starts at this tournament.
Their leading goalscorer in the Brasileiro, Ytalo, went goalless in both Round of 16 matches, but he is tied with Fabricio Bruno for the team lead in goals in this competition with two, while the back four of Aderlan, Bruno, Leo Ortiz and Edimar have started in every game so far in this tournament, featuring as the starting defensive unit in all but one game.
Rosario Central possible starting lineup:
Romero; Blanco, Avila, Almada, D. Martinez; Ferreyra, Lo Celso, Villagra, Zabala; Gamba, L. Martinez
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Bruno, Ortiz, Edimar; Raul, Evangelista; Artur, Jadsom, Helinho; Ytalo
We say: Rosario Central 1-0 Bragantino
Rosario are used to playing in tight matches, as their last six games in all competitions were decided by a single goal, and they have yet to concede a goal at home in this tournament in four matches.
Bragantino have cooled off in attack lately, going without a goal in two of their last three league games, and it seems like this talented team might be a little tired coming into this match, their fourth in the past two weeks.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 36.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
