Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.59%) and 2-1 (7.14%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (12.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sporting Gijon in this match.