High-flying Senegal play host to Congo at the Stade Lat Dior on Sunday in what is the final round of group games in round two of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers.
The hosts have already sealed their place in the final qualifying phase thanks to their healthy eight-point lead at the summit of the group, while the visitors will be aiming to pick up their first win and bow out in style.
Match preview
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Senegal's blistering run of results in Group H of the World Cup qualifiers took a slight halt last Thursday when they were held to a 1-1 draw by a resilient Togo side.
In a cagey affair at Lome's Stade de Kegue, 26-year-old midfielder Richard Nane put the hosts ahead on the stroke of half time before Habib Diallo came off the bench to salvage a point for the visitors with what was the last kick of the game.
Prior to that, the Indomitable Lions were on a run of four wins from their opening four games in the qualifiers, netting 12 goals and conceding three in that time.
Aliou Cisse's side, who boast an eight-point lead over second-placed Togo, have already sealed their place in the final qualifying phase and the 45-yar-old will hope they can keep the juggernaut rolling and secure their third appearance at the World Cup.
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Congo, on the other hand, continue to search for their first win of the World Cup qualifiers as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Namibia last time out.
After heading into half time with a one-goal deficit courtesy of Peter Shalulile's 42nd-minute strike, Guy Mbenza struck nine minutes after the interval to force a share of the spoils.
Paul Put's men have now failed to pick up a competitive win in any of their last seven outings, claiming four draws and losing three since edging out Libya 1-0 in January's African Nations Championship.
With three points from five games, Congo, who are yet to pick up a win in the qualifiers, are currently rock bottom on the log, two points behind third-placed Namibia.
While the Red Devils will be looking to end this dry spell, their chances of bowing out on a winning note are quite slim as they go up against an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in any of the most recent three meetings between the sides, picking up one draw and losing twice.
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Team News
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Senegal head into the game with an injury-free and star-studded squad, including the likes of Watford forward Ismaila Sarr, Chelsea's Edouard Mendy and Liverpool star Sadio Mane.
Marseille midfielder Pape Gueye was handed his first call-up to the senior squad and the 22-year-old could make his debut this Sunday after watching from the bench last time out.
After coming off the bench to grab a late equaliser last time out, Strasbourg forward Diallo could be handed a place in the XI this weekend and could team up with Mane in attack.
At the opposite end of the pitch, we expect Napoli star Kalidou Koulibaly to sit at the heart of the four-man defence, shielding Mendy between the sticks.
Meanwhile, Congo have named a 23-man squad for their final group games, including Boavista midfielder Gaius Makouta and goalkeeper Christoffer Mafoumbi.
Mbenza, who has netted five goals in nine appearances for Wydad AC in the Moroccan top flight, grabbed the equaliser last time out and we expect the 21-year-old to spearhead the attack once again.
Senegal possible starting lineup:
E Mendy; Diallo, Koulibaly, Kouyate, Ciss; N Mendy, Gueye, P Sarr; I Sarr, Diallo, Mane
Congo possible starting lineup:
Mafoumbi; Rozan, Mapata, Francis, Mazikou; Gaius, Mboungou, Avounou; Makoumbou, Mbenza, Mabella
We say: Senegal 2-0 Congo
With Senegal already sealing their place in the final qualifying phase, both sides will be playing just for pride in this one. Senegal have been the superior side in the recent history of this fixture and we anticipate they will extend their dominance and come away with all three points on Sunday.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 67.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Congo had a probability of 10.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.29%) and 3-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.47%), while for a Congo win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.
