Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.82%) and 2-1 (7.74%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 0-1 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.