In League Two on Saturday, Sutton United will welcome Port Vale to Gander Green Lane and the hosts enter the fixture in 11th position with 14 points to their name
Port Vale are four points better off than their opponents and as a result, they occupy third position in League Two.
Match preview
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Sutton have adapted quite well to their new surroundings in the Football League despite a rocky opening that saw them open the season with four games without a win.
However, since then The Us have won four of their last five games, which has left Sutton just a point away from a playoff place.
Last time out Sutton emerged victorious against Northampton Town thanks to goals either side of half time from Joseph Kizzi and Donovan Wilson.
Despite having to change their artificial surface to a grass pitch in the summer, Matt Gray's side have enjoyed a promising home record in League Two, winning three of their four games at Gander Green Lane.
A large part of Sutton's success is due to an impressive defence that has only conceded eight goals in the league this term.
Port Vale enter the fixture in an automatic promotion place, with The Valiants only five points off Forest Green Rovers in top spot.
Draws were the story of Port Vale's opening fixtures with three of their first four league games ending all square and their first league win of the campaign did not arrive until August 28.
However, The Valiants have been in fine form recently and have won their last four league games, which has propelled Darrell Clarke's side up the table.
Port Vale won their last league game against Leyton Orient in dramatic fashion when they managed to overturn a 2-1 deficit in stoppage time, with Dennis Politic and Jamie Proctor scoring to snatch all three points courtesy of a 3-2 scoreline.
Saturday's visitors will be in an even more confident mood after collecting another victory midweek thanks to more late drama, as Rochdale's Max Taylor put the ball in his own net in stoppage time to gift Port Vale the victory.
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Team News
Wilson and Richie Bennett have both scored two league goals this season for Sutton and they will once again make up a front two for The Us this weekend.
In fact, after winning 2-0 last weekend against Northampton, Gray is likely to name an unchanged lineup.
Port Vale saw Brad Walker return from a knee injury to play 45 minutes on Tuesday, and the midfielder could find a place on the bench for Saturday.
However, The Valiants are still without Leon Legge, who is a long-term absentee.
Ben Garrity is a doubt for Saturday after he was withdrawn in the second half against Leyton Orient last weekend and if he is not fit enough to feature then Jake Taylor could take his place in the starting lineup.
Sutton United possible starting lineup:
Bouzanis; Kizzi, Goodliffe, John, Milsom; Ajiboye, Eastmond, Smith, Boldewijn; Wilson, Bennett
Port Vale possible starting lineup:
Covolan; Cass, Smith, Jones; Worrall, Taylor, Pett, Conlon, Gibbons; Wilson, Proctor
We say: Sutton United 1-2 Port Vale
Both sides are in fine form and as a result it could be a close contest, but we think Port Vale will have too much quality for their opponents, and that they should just squeeze past Sutton on Saturday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (11.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
