The Philadelphia Union can move a step closer to matching their longest unbeaten run in franchise history when they head to BMO Field on Saturday to face Toronto.
The Reds come into this contest unbeaten in their previous three Major League Soccer encounters, while Philly are the only team in the league who have yet to lose, winning five in a row.
Match preview
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Down but never out has been a common theme with TFC lately, as they have collected seven points in their last three games despite trailing three times over that stretch.
While their response in recent matches is an encouraging sign for Bob Bradley and his side, they have not started games brightly, conceding eight first-half goals this year.
The youth movement is in full effect in Toronto, and judging from what we have seen after six matches this season, their future looks bright.
With every match we see this group growing in confidence, although they still tend to make some rookie mistakes, forcing them to dig in and grind out results.
Bradley is calling on his youthful side to play a complete game while utilizing their speed out wide, which is a huge asset that the Reds possess.
Playing in the conditions of Salt Lake City was a challenge last weekend, and Toronto will face another big test on Saturday, taking on a side who they have not beaten in their previous three encounters, with Philly outscoring them 10-2 over that stretch.
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After six fixtures, the Union have definitely played up to expectations, as they currently hold the best record in MLS and are off to their best start to a regular season in club history.
Jim Curtin has been able to count on a solid backline with a pair of young fullbacks who can provide some attacking width and creativity down the flanks.
Despite their strong start to the campaign, Curtin insists that his group have a solid foundation but are not a finished product, creating plenty of chances, though not always burying as many as they could.
Philadelphia can make it miserable for their opponents to attack, as they are as positionally sound as any MLS unit and rarely allow you much time or space in the final third.
Given all of that information, it should come as no surprise to see them at the top of the charts defensively, conceding just two goals thus far, posting four consecutive shutouts.
If they can earn at least a point in their next two fixtures, it would match a franchise record for the longest unbeaten run at eight matches, which the Union achieved twice previously, in 2011 and 2016.
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Team News
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Toronto midfielder Kosi Thompson scored his first career MLS goal last Saturday thanks to some excellent work from Jacob Shaffelburg, while a stunning long-range effort from Jayden Nelson gave the Reds a single point.
Carlos Salcedo will be suspended following his red card late against RSL, Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty is unlikely to play due to a lower-body injury and Ayo Akinola is questionable as he recovers from an ACL problem.
Jesus Jimenez leads the team in goals with three, one more than long-time midfielder Jonathan Osorio, while Luca Petrasso is first for TFC in assists with two.
While he did not get credit for it, the only Union goal last weekend versus Columbus came off the foot of Jose Martinez, as Crew keeper Eloy Room badly mishandled his cross, knocking it into his own net.
Daniel Gazdag has goals in four consecutive games to lead the Boys in Blue this season, matching the longest offensive stretch in club history alongside former player CJ Sapong, who achieved that same feat in 2015.
Philadelphia have employed the same back four in their last four games, as Nathan Harriel, Jakob Glesnes, Jack Elliott and Kai Wagner have made life relatively easy for goalkeeper Andre Blake, who has four successive clean sheets and is tied for the league lead in that category.
This weekend, Sergio Santos is the only question mark for the Union, as the Brazilian forward has a hamstring strain.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; O'Neill, Mavinga, MacNaughton; Shaffelburg, Osorio, Bradley, Thompson; Nelson, Pozuelo; Jimenez
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Harriel, Glesnes, Elliott, Wagner; Martinez; Sullivan, Gazdag, Aaronson; Burke, Uhre
We say: Toronto 0-1 Philadelphia Union
TFC are young and fast with plenty of potential, but all of those qualities can also be said about the Union, who are sounder defensively and do not make the mental errors that we are seeing from time to time in Toronto.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
