As the Bundesliga resumes this weekend, Union Berlin meet old rivals Hertha Berlin at Stadion an der Alten Forsterei on Saturday evening.
An all too rare capital city derby pits together two sides looking to improve their fortunes after picking up just a point from their past two league games.
Match preview
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Bundesliga Berlin derbies have only infrequently occurred since Germany's national league kicked off in 1963, and just eight matches have been played between capital clubs in the top flight before this weekend.
Ahead of a fixture that will capture the attention of a once-divided city, Union resume only their third-ever Bundesliga campaign in eighth spot in the standings, four points better off than 13th-placed Hertha.
In the first 11 rounds, Die Eisernen have lost only twice, and until their recent defeat to Bayern Munich, had gone unbeaten on home turf for 22 top-flight matches since September 2020.
Just before the international break, Union followed a 2-1 Europa Conference League loss at home to Feyenoord with a 2-2 draw at Koln, in which they came from behind to lead going into the final five minutes, but were denied maximum points by Anthony Modeste's late equaliser.
They now prepare for one of the most important dates in their calendar having generally been bettered in the derby over the past two years. Urs Fischer's side may have won the first Bundesliga meeting with Hertha in November 2019 but have not managed to overcome their capital counterparts since.
After being thumped 4-0 in the return fixture that season, they lost 3-1 away last year before a 1-1 draw at Stadion an der Alten Forsterei when the clubs last met. Therefore, a committed fanbase from the working-class neighbourhood of Kopenick will be eager to taste success on Saturday and secure bragging rights.
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Considering just two points separated Hertha Berlin from the drop zone at the climax of a troubled 2020-21 campaign, concerns quickly grew when Pal Dardai's team suffered a three-match losing streak to the current season. However, 13 points from a possible 24 since have hauled them up the table and away from the dreaded bottom three.
Hertha failed to continue their best run of form so far, though, when they were beaten 2-0 by Hoffenheim and then held 1-1 by Leverkusen before the Bundesliga was paused for World Cup qualifying.
Robert Andrich's 90th-minute equaliser denied the Old Lady a much-needed victory in the latter game, following a first-half strike from Stevan Jovetic, which had seemed set to win them the three points.
That late concession perhaps came as no surprise, as Hertha have one of the division's worst defensive records, after 5-0 and 6-0 defeats to Bayern and RB Leipzig respectively helped add up to a worrying 24 goals against. In fact, only rock-bottom Greuther Furth - who have picked up only one point to date - have conceded more.
A club that proudly boasts about training in all 12 districts of Berlin will, therefore, approach this weekend's fixture with lingering questions about their rearguard - and an attack which has managed a modest 12 goals so far.
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Team News
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Union head coach Urs Fischer has had his attacking options significantly bolstered ahead of the derby, as the influential Max Kruse has returned from a thigh injury and can start.
The former Werder Bremen forward will be joined up front by Taiwo Awoniyi, the club's top scorer with seven Bundesliga strikes so far.
Only Kevin Behrens is therefore expected to miss out on Saturday, when Fischer is likely to opt for his favoured 3-4-2-1 formation.
His opposite number, Pal Dardai, is facing the big match with several absences to cater for. Dedryck Boyata is still suspended following his dismissal against Hoffenheim, while Vladimir Darida has a thigh problem and Lukas Klunter is troubled by a shoulder injury.
Furthermore, striker Stevan Jovetic is not included in the squad, as he tested positive for COVID-19 this week after celebrating his 32nd birthday during the international camp in Montenegro.
Injury had already restricted the ex-Monaco forward to a handful of starts this term, so Krzysztof Piatek - who has scored once in five outings since returning from an ankle fracture - will compete with Davie Selke and Ishak Belfodil for the lone striker's role.
Berlin-born academy graduate Kevin-Prince Boateng has had a restricted role since his return to the club, but would relish an opportunity to shine on the big stage once more.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Baumgartl; Ryerson, Promel, Khedira, Giesselmann; Haraguchi, Kruse; Awoniyi
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Pekarik, Stark, Dardai, Plattenhardt; Tousart, Ascacibar; Richter, Serdar, Mittelstadt; Piatek
We say: Union Berlin 2-1 Hertha Berlin
A fine home record and better form over the opening months of the season give Union the edge in this local affair - particularly given Hertha's woes up front and at the back.
For that reason, the hosts can come out on top for just the second time as a Bundesliga side in this hotly-contested Berlin derby.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 47.73%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 26.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
