Werder Bremen take on Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the visitors looking to continue to cement their status within the top four.
The hosts, meanwhile, have all but secured safety with a nine-point cushion above the relegation zone, so they may have their eyes set on a top-half finish.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having only survived relegation via a playoff with Heidenheim at the end of last season, having little to play for with nine league games remaining must feel unusual to Florian Kohfeldt and his players.
That said, Bremen will not consider themselves to be completely safe just yet, while they also have a DFB-Pokal quarter-final against Jahn Regensburg to look forward to next month as they look to win that competition for a seventh time in the club's history.
Kohfeldt's side were completely outclassed in a 3-1 defeat at home to Bayern Munich last weekend, but of course there is no shame in that. Die Werderaner fell behind through Leon Goretzka's header, before Serge Gnabry doubled the Bavarians' lead prior to half time.
Jiri Pavlenka made a string of excellent saves to deny Robert Lewandowski, who also hit the post and the bar, before the Poland international moved level with Klaus Fischer in second place in the all-time Bundesliga goalscoring chart to seal victory for his side.
Niclas Fullkrug did score a late consolation goal, but Bremen's forwards will be hoping for more change out of Wolfsburg on Saturday.
© Reuters
However, given that Wolfsburg currently boast the joint-best defensive record in the division along with RB Leipzig, Bremen may find chances even more at a premium than they did in behind Bayern's high line.
Indeed, Oliver Glasner's side kept a remarkable eighth clean sheet in nine league games during last weekend's 5-0 hammering of Schalke 04, which kept them six points clear of fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund.
On current form it is difficult to envisage the Wolves falling outside of the Champions League qualification places, with a miserly defence complemented by a fluid frontline, which is certainly maximising Wout Weghorst's ability as the spearhead of the attack.
The Netherlands forward always seemed likely to enjoy himself against Schalke's struggling defence, particularly after Shkodran Mustafi's hapless own goal broke the visitors' resolve after the half-an-hour mark.
Weghorst doubled his side's tally with a clinical finish after the break, before he turned provider for Ridle Baku and Josip Brekalo, with Glasner's side running riot as Maximilian Philipp added further gloss to the one-sided affair.
Glasner will be hoping for more of the same against Bremen, but realistically he will also be aware that Kohfeldt runs a much tighter ship while carrying greater threat in transition at Bremen.
With Eintracht Frankfurt and Dortmund breathing down their necks, though, Wolfsburg can ill afford too many slip-ups between now and the end of the season if they are to compete in the Champions League for the first time in over five years.
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Bremen will be without Luca Plogmann and Michael Zetterer due to injury, but otherwise Kohfeldt appears to have a clean bill of health to choose from.
Fullkrug could come back into the side to provide more of a focal point after scoring from the bench against Bayern, with Romano Schmid potentially dropping out of the team.
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, continue to be without the suspended Otavio for another three matches after his shocking tackle on Munas Dabbur against Hoffenheim.
Renato Steffen is likely to be out until May with a ligament injury, but Jerome Roussillon could return at left-back having impressed from the bench against Schalke.
Maxence Lacroix and Xaver Schlager will return from suspension, too, having sat out of the match against Schalke after each amassing their fifth yellow cards of the season at Hoffenheim.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Veljkovic, Toprak, Moisander; Gebre Selassie, Eggestein, Mohwald, Augustinsson; Rashica, Sargent; Fullkrug
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Arnold; Brekalo, Mehmedi, Baku; Weghorst
We say: Werder Bremen 1-2 Wolfsburg
Should Kohfeldt go with Fullkrug, Milot Rashica and Joshua Sargent in attack, we can see Bremen giving Wolfsburg a real scare on Saturday.
However, the Wolves have serious momentum at the moment and, with a few first-team players returning, they should be able to get the job done.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 52.04%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.6%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-0 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
