The returning weekend of Bundesliga fixtures concludes with a tasty clash between Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen at Weserstadion on Monday evening.
Bremen are in the relegation zone after winning just four games all season, while Leverkusen are only two points outside the top four heading into gameweek 26.
Match preview
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No club has spent more seasons in the German top flight than Die Werderaner, but that may well change over the coming weeks should they fail to turn around their poor form.
A run of nine defeats in their last 11 league matches - their only points coming against Hertha Berlin and Fortuna Dusseldorf - has left Bremen facing the prospect of relegation.
Confidence is shot, but Florian Kohfeldt's side have at least had a couple of months to refocus ahead of their final batch of fixtures, starting with Monday's visit of Leverkusen.
The visitors are in a far healthier position than their opponents, going unbeaten in five league matches for the first time this term prior to the coronavirus-enforced hiatus.
Thirteen points from 15 on offer in that period - a joint-league high with leaders Bayern Munich - suggests that March's shutdown came at the wrong time for Peter Bosz's men.
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Bayer have a huge clash with Borussia Monchengladbach next week, the side directly above them in fourth, but they cannot afford to take their eye off the ball.
Die Werkself have averaged 0.87 points-per-game from their 39 Bundesliga away matches in Bremen - only against Bayern do they have a worse record amongst current Bundesliga sides.
However, Werder have lost their last six home league matches, failing to score in each of their last five at home - the league's worst return in both regards.
Stopping the rot is imperative for Kohfeldt, and he can at least take some spirit from the 2-2 draw with Hertha Berlin last time out, even if his side did squander a two-goal lead.
As for Bayer, they were 4-0 winners against Eintracht Frankfurt in their most recent league match on March 7, which they followed up with victory over Rangers in the Europa League.
Die Werkself have lost just one of their last seven competitive meetings with Bremen, too, so this seems the ideal fixture for the visitors to ease their way back in.
Werder Bremen's Bundesliga form: LLLLLD
Werder Bremen's form (all competitions): WLLLLD
Bayer Leverkusen's Bundesliga form: WWDWWW
Bayer Leverkusen's form (all competitions): LWWWDW
Team News
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Kevin Volland has netted nine times for Leverkusen in the Bundesliga this term, but he is set to miss the rest of 2019-20 with an ankle injury.
However, midfielder Julian Baumgartlinger has recovered from a knee problem and Daley Sinkgraven is also now fully fit.
Kai Havertz is undoubtedly the star player in this side, explaining the repeated links away from the club, and he is almost certain to start in attacking midfield.
Bremen will be without key man Davy Klaassen for the first time this season, meanwhile, due to a suspension incurred a couple of months ago.
Claudio Pizarro will play no part because of injury, while Niclas Fullkrug and Ludwig Augustinsson have also been ruled out.
Werder Bremen's possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Selassie, Moisander, Toprak, Friedl; Vogt; Eggestein, Rashica, Sahin, Bittencourt; Selke
Bayer Leverkusen's possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Bender; Weiser, Aranguiz, Paulinho, Sinkgraven; Havertz, Diaby; Alario
We say: Werder Bremen 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen were in fine form before football across the world was brought to a halt in March. It remains to be seen exactly what state of fitness their players will be in, but Bremen have been poor all season long and this match will surely only end one way.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 51.85%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.66%) and 0-1 (6.6%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
