Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 46.25%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 28.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.