P. New Guinea

1 - 0

New Caledonia

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 49.63%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 0-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Papua New Guinea in this match.