Two good friends will take to the hard court in the ATP World Tour Finals Red group on Monday night, as Russian duo Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev meet in their opening round-robin encounter.
The former is taking part in the year-end championships for the fifth successive season, while Rublev has now appeared at the ATP Finals four times on the trot.
Match preview
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As has been the case in eight previous top-level meetings between the pair, Medvedev will push his friendship with Rublev to one side as he searches for a second ATP Finals crown to add to his 2020 triumph, one year before he achieved his Grand Slam dream at the US Open.
The towering Moscow native would also progress to the showpiece match of the ATP Finals that season, only to suffer heartache at the hands of Alexander Zverev, while round-robin exits in 2019 and 2022 are best consigned to the history books.
Medvedev had eyes on a spot in Turin right at the start of 2023 owing to a phenomenal start to the season, winning no fewer than three ATP Tour titles in February alone as he prevailed in Rotterdam, Qatar and Dubai, before also taking home two Masters trophies from Miami and Rome.
However, the third seed enters the group phase having been bested in each of his last three top-level finals, losing to Jannik Sinner in the Vienna and China showpiece events in October, not to forget his failed attempt to deny Novak Djokovic major title number 24 at Flushing Meadows.
Medvedev was also swept aside by Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the Indian Wells Masters eight months ago and was beaten by Grigor Dimitrov in the last 32 of the recent Paris Masters, but with 64 wins and 16 defeats on his notebook for the year, the 27-year-old is anything but a dark horse for the Turin title.
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Another year, another season of quarter-final anguish for world number five Andrey Rublev, who was unable to lift the last-eight curse at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open, while only getting as far as round three at Roland Garros.
The 26-year-old has now tried and failed nine times to reach a major semi-final, but he ended his long wait for an ATP 1000 crown at this year's Monte-Carlo Masters - coming from a set down to see off Holger Rune in the final - before also making waves at the recent Shanghai and Paris Masters.
Rublev took home the runners-up trophy from Shanghai courtesy of an enthralling defeat to Hubert Hurkacz - his third loss from his last four top-level finals - before failing to build on an opening set triumph over Djokovic in the last four in Paris, but he does also bring a Swedish Open triumph with him to the ATP Finals.
The Russian's first two year-end championship appearances in 2020 and 2021 both ended with a round-robin departure, but he progressed to the knockout stages in last year's event, only to fall to Casper Ruud's superiority in the semi-finals.
From his 79 matches on the tour this year, Rublev boasts a praiseworthy 56 wins alongside 23 defeats, but despite sharing a couple of laughs with Medvedev at a recent press conference, the compatriots will swap smiles for stoicism as they endeavour to make winning starts on Monday.
Head To Head
Cincinnati Masters (2019) - Quarter-final: Medvedev wins 6-2 6-3
St. Petersburg Open (2019) - Quarter-final: Medvedev wins 6-4 7-5
US Open (2020) - Quarter-final: Medvedev wins 7-6[6] 6-3 7-6[5]
Australian Open (2021) - Quarter-final: Medvedev wins 7-5 6-3 6-2
Cincinnati Masters (2021) - Semi-final: Rublev wins 2-6 6-3 6-3
ATP Finals (2022) - Round robin: Rublev wins 6-7[7] 6-3 7-6[7]
Dubai Tennis Championships (2023) - Final: Medvedev wins 6-3 6-2
US Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-3 6-4
Following their frequent meetings at junior level, Medvedev and Rublev have squared off eight times at the top level, and the former leads the way with six victories to his name compared to a paltry two for the world number five.
Each of their first four ATP Tour battles - which all came in various quarter-finals - saw Medvedev come out on the winning side, including the 2020 US Open and 2021 Australian Open, before Rublev earned his maiden victory in the semi-finals of the Cincinnati Masters two seasons ago.
That triumph preceded an enthralling success in last year's ATP Finals group stage, but Medvedev has come up trumps in straight sets both of their matches this year, seeing off his friend in the Dubai final before subjecting him to more Grand Slam quarter-final misery in sweltering New York heat.
We say: Medvedev to win in three sets
What Rublev possesses in blistering serves and unstoppable forehands, he often lacks in mentality, having been prone to letting his emotions get the better of him throughout his fledgling senior career so far.
The Russian's US Open loss to Medvedev was no different, and while the indoor conditions in Turin will be far more forgiving than at Flushing Meadows, the fifth seed will likely succumb to his compatriot's defensive mastery yet again.
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Ben Knapton
