Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 36.42% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.7%) and 2-0 (5.06%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
Result | ||
Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
41.11% ( 0.23) | 22.46% ( -0.13) | 36.42% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 67.32% ( 0.47) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.77% ( 0.62) | 33.23% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.01% ( 0.71) | 54.98% ( -0.71) |
Sydney FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.07% ( 0.35) | 16.93% ( -0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53% ( 0.62) | 46.99% ( -0.62) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.03% ( 0.23) | 18.96% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.51% ( 0.38) | 50.49% ( -0.38) |
Score Analysis |
Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.4% Total : 41.11% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 7% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.48% Total : 22.46% | 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.88% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0) 3-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.65% Total : 36.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 28 |
2 | Auckland FC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 27 |
3 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
6 | Macarthur | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
7 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
8 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 18 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 8 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 5 |
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