Canada can earn their second medal at the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday when they take on the USA at SoFi Stadium in California.
A late goal in stoppage time in the first semi-final saw the United States suffer a 1-0 defeat versus Panama, while the Canucks were beaten 2-0 by Mexico.
Match preview
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The chances were there, but the Canadians could not make the most of them in their semi-final fixture, in what wound up being a frustrating 90 minutes for Jesse Marsch.
His side were behind after just one minute and felt like they should have had a penalty later in the half when Derek Cornelius was taken down in the box, though surprisingly, the VAR did not intervene.
At the end of the day, though, Les Rouges were wasteful in the attacking third, often trying to be too cute in that area, which cost them a chance at a second trip to the Nations League final.
The Canucks have not won a third-place match since the 2002 CONCACAF Gold Cup, when they claimed a narrow 2-1 victory over South Korea.
Since taking charge of this team Marsch has never suffered consecutive defeats as the head coach in normal time, but his side lost the third-place match at the Copa America to Uruguay on penalties last year (4-3) after losing the semi-final against Argentina (2-0).
Canada have won their last five matches played across all competitions when finding the back of the net, failing to score in only two games since the Copa America concluded.
On Sunday, they can win consecutive matches against the US for the first time since the 1980s, beating them 2-1 in a September 2024 friendly.
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A fourth successive Nations League title was not in the cards for the USA, who conceded in the dying stages versus Panama, relegating them to the third-place playoff match for the first time.
That was the first time they had lost a Nations League affair on US soil, ending the Yanks' four-match winning run across all competitions.
On Sunday, they are in danger of losing consecutive games in the United States for the first time since the 2024 Copa America, when they were beaten in their final two group fixtures of that competition.
Mauricio Pochettino has never lost a match with the national team when his side have drawn first blood, though he has also lost his only two games in charge when they conceded first.
The United States have not played in a CONCACAF third-place match since the 2003 Gold Cup when they came away with a 3-2 victory over Costa Rica.
It has been nearly three years since this team have failed to score in consecutive international affairs, following up a 2-0 defeat versus Japan in September 2022, with a 0-0 draw against Saudi Arabia that same month.
In their two prior home meetings against Canada in this competition, the USA have emerged victorious both times, including a 2-0 victory in the 2023 final.
Team News
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Canada were without Richie Laryea against the Mexicans as he is recovering from a sore hamstring, while Daniel Jebbison collected his first international cap, replacing Stephen Eustaquio in the final 10 minutes.
Marsch made four changes to his starting 11 against Mexico from the side that started their second-leg Nations League game versus Suriname, as Cornelius, Alphonso Davies, Ismael Kone and Jonathan Osorio came in for Kamal Miller, Laryea, Mathieu Choiniere and Jacob Shaffelburg.
Promise David is seeking his first international appearance this weekend, Osorio can equal Paul Stalteri for third in all-time caps, while Cyle Larin can move into a tie with Milan Borjan for seventh in that category and also tie Jonathan David for the most all-time goals with his next one.
In the semi-finals, the US were missing Folarin Balogun with a sore shoulder, Sergino Dest sat out having just returned from a torn ACL at PSV, Ricardo Pepi is dealing with a knee injury and Johnny Cardoso is unavailable because of a muscle issue.
On Thursday, we saw three new faces in the starting 11 who did not begin their previous Nations League game against Jamaica, with Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, and Josh Sargent replacing Antonee Robinson, Mark McKenzie, and Pepi.
Matt Turner collected his 50th cap in their defeat to Panama, while Christian Pulisic can move into a tie for fourth in all-time goals, on par with Eric Wynalda should he net a brace in this match.
Canada possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Johnston, Bombito, Waterman, Davies; Eustaquio, Kone; Buchanan, J. David, Shaffelburg; Larin
USA possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Musah, Carter-Vickers, McKenzie, Scally; Adams, McGlynn; McKennie, Pulisic, Reyna; Agyemang
We say: Canada 1-1 USA (USA win on penalties)
The Canadians try too hard to make the perfect play rather than the simple one against the experienced sides in this region and that could come back to bite them on Sunday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a TBC win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for TBC has a probability of 33.6% and a draw has a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a TBC win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest TBC win is 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.72%).
Joel Lefevre
