MX23RW : Saturday, March 22 10:50:15| >> :60:106:106:
Canada national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Third-Place Playoff
Mar 23, 2025 at 10pm UK
SoFi Stadium
USA national football team

Canada
vs.
USA

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and USA, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group A Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina359
2Canada3-14
3Chile3-12
4Peru3-31
All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 0-1 Panama
Thursday, March 20 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1Uruguay389
2Panama316
3USA303
4Bolivia3-90

We say: Canada 1-1 USA (USA win on penalties)

The Canadians try too hard to make the perfect play rather than the simple one against the experienced sides in this region and that could come back to bite them on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a TBC win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for TBC has a probability of 33.6% and a draw has a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a TBC win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest TBC win is 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.72%).

Result
CanadaDrawUSA
33.6%24.95%41.45%
Both teams to score 57.38%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.09%45.92%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.78%68.22%
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.67%26.33%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.53%61.47%
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.89%22.11%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.52%55.48%
Score Analysis
    Canada 33.6%
    USA 41.45%
    Draw 24.95%
CanadaDrawUSA
2-1 @ 7.82%
1-0 @ 7.77%
2-0 @ 5.18%
3-1 @ 3.48%
3-2 @ 2.63%
3-0 @ 2.31%
4-1 @ 1.16%
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 33.6%
1-1 @ 11.72%
2-2 @ 5.9%
0-0 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.95%
1-2 @ 8.85%
0-1 @ 8.79%
0-2 @ 6.63%
1-3 @ 4.45%
0-3 @ 3.33%
2-3 @ 2.97%
1-4 @ 1.68%
0-4 @ 1.26%
2-4 @ 1.12%
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 41.45%

Who will win Sunday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and USA?

Canada
Draw
USA
Canada
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
USA
0.0%
0
Head to Head
Sep 7, 2024 9pm
Friendlies 1
USA
1-2
Canada
De la Torre (66')
Balogun (53')
Shaffelburg (17'), David (58')
Larin (63')
Jul 10, 2023 12.30am
Quarter-Finals
USA
2-2
Canada
(Aggregate 2-2 | USA win 3-2 on penalties)
Vazquez (88'), Kennedy (114' og.)
Cowell (96'), Miazga (120+1')
Vitoria (90+3' pen.), Shaffelburg (109')
Cavallini (42'), McGraw (56'), Miller (57'), Osorio (62')
Jun 19, 2023 1.30am
Final
Canada
0-2
USA

Kennedy (15'), Laryea (45+4')
Richards (12'), Balogun (34')
Cardoso (80'), Turner (81')
Jan 30, 2022 8.05pm
Third Round
Canada
2-0
USA
Larin (7'), Adekugbe (90+5')
Vitoria (31'), Buchanan (88')
Sep 6, 2021 1am
Third Round
USA
1-1
Canada
Aaronson (55')
Larin (62')
rhs 2.0
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