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Athletico Paranaense
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 15, 2024 at 11pm UK
Arena de Baixada

Athletico PR
2 - 1
Belgrano

Erick (41'), Christian (63')
Heleno (27'), Canobbio (30'), Moreno (86')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Jara (1')
Cruz Real (0'), Barinaga (30'), Quignon (36'), Chicco (61'), Fernandinho (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Athletico Paranaense and Belgrano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Belgrano 1-1 Union
Friday, August 9 at 11pm in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Belgrano

Athletico-PR have been inconsistent at home in recent weeks and throughout this competition, while Belgrano remain unbeaten away from home in the current Sudamericana campaign, which is why we predict a positive result for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 62.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Belgrano had a probability of 15.07%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.73%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Belgrano win it was 0-1 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico ParanaenseDrawBelgrano
62.29% (0.045999999999999 0.05) 22.65% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01) 15.07% (-0.036 -0.04)
Both teams to score 43.57% (-0.056999999999995 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.27% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)53.73% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.79% (-0.026 -0.03)75.21% (0.027999999999992 0.03)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.2% (0.0039999999999907 0)16.79% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.24% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)46.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Belgrano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.36% (-0.07 -0.07)47.64% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.03% (-0.052 -0.05)82.97% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Athletico Paranaense 62.28%
    Belgrano 15.07%
    Draw 22.64%
Athletico ParanaenseDrawBelgrano
1-0 @ 14.27% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 12.73% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 7.57% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 3.38% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.51%
3-2 @ 2.08% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.21% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 0.93% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 62.28%
1-1 @ 10.58% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.5% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 22.64%
0-1 @ 5.93% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-2 @ 3.92% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.2% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 0.97% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 15.07%

How you voted: Athletico PR vs Belgrano

Athletico Paranaense
58.8%
Draw
29.4%
Belgrano
11.8%
17
rhs 2.0
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