One of the most high-profile clashes in the Leagues Cup round of 16 will see defending champions Inter Miami travel to Lower.com Field on Tuesday to battle the Columbus Crew.
The reigning champions of Major League Soccer (MLS) advanced to this stage by thumping Sporting Kansas City 4-0, while Miami hung on for a 4-3 victory over Toronto.
Match preview
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Despite having a few weeks between their last domestic encounter and the start of this tournament, it did not appear to affect Columbus on Friday.
A goal one minute before the interval was all they needed to open the floodgates against KC, as they walked away with a convincing triumph.
Wilfried Nancy's men have only suffered one defeat in their previous nine games (2-1 versus Atlanta United), with their last four victories being by three goals or more.
Tuesday will be the first time they feature in the last 16 of this tournament, with the Crew unbeaten in their previous four CONCACAF Champions Cup encounters in that phase.
Columbus have won five of their last six matches played at Lower.com Field and have not lost to an MLS opponent at home since May (2-1 versus FC Cincinnati).
The last time the Crew emerged victorious from a match against Miami was in the 2022 regular season, when they came away with a 1-0 triumph.
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It was a rather nervy round of 32 fixture for the Herons on Thursday, but in the end, their attacking depth carried them into the next round.
Tata Martino's men spent over an hour of that match down a man but were up 3-1 at that stage before scoring another one just before the hour mark, which proved decisive.
The Herons have won eight consecutive matches across all competitions when netting multiple times and have not lost when doing so since their 3-1 Champions Cup defeat to Monterrey in April.
This upcoming contest will be their second outside Chase Stadium at the 2024 Leagues Cup, with Miami suffering a 2-1 defeat versus Tigres at NRG Stadium in Houston earlier this month.
In their three away matches in the Leagues Cup knockout phase last year, the Herons only emerged victorious in normal time on one occasion, defeating the Philadelphia Union 4-1 in the semi-finals while beating Dallas and Nashville SC on penalties.
Inter Miami are undefeated in their last three meetings with the Columbus Crew, only beating them once at Lower.com Field in the 2023 MLS regular season (2-1).
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Team News
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The Crew did not have Taha Habroune on the team sheet last week after he only recently returned from the Under-20 CONCACAF Championship, while Evan Bush was out with a wrist injury.
Patrick Schulte sat out in favour of second-choice goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen, with the American only recently returning from a stint at the Olympics with the USA Under-23 squad.
A brace courtesy of Diego Rossi put Columbus up by two before the hour mark on Friday, with Derrick Jones and Dylan Chambost adding some insurance.
Miami were once again without Lionel Messi in the round of 32, as the Herons skipper is still dealing with an ankle injury and, according to reports, may be rested for this match despite being back to training at the gym.
Nicolas Freire and Facundo Farias were sidelined with ACL injuries, while David Martinez will be suspended for this clash following his straight red card against Toronto.
Matias Rojas, Diego Gomez and Luis Suarez each found the back of the net within the opening 20 minutes on Thursday, with Rojas putting home the winner in the second half.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Schulte; Moreira, Camacho, Amundsen; Farsi, Nagbe, Zawadzki, Matan; Ramirez, Rossi; Hernandez
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Weigandt, Aviles, Kryvtsov, Alba; Rojas, Busquets, Redondo; Gressel, Suarez, Gomez
We say: Columbus Crew 3-2 Inter Miami
While Miami have performed admirably without Messi, we believe this match will be a step too far for them as the Crew are firing on all cylinders, and the Herons have not proven to be consistent or strong enough at the back.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 63.2%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 17.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 1-0 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.72%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 1-2 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-2 win for Columbus Crew in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Columbus Crew.
Joel Lefevre
