N. Ireland

5 - 0

Bulgaria

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 52.01%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 19.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.54%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.6%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northern Ireland would win this match.